Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon MAWAR [AMBO]

for Sunday, 03 June 2012 [12:16 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday June 02 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MAWAR (AMBO).

MAWAR MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON MAWAR [AMBO/04W/1203]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Sun 03 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #010/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

Typhoon MAWAR (AMBO) continues to intensify, attains Category 2 strength...moving NNE away from the coast of Northeastern Luzon.

MAWAR (AMBO) will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Metro Manila, Bicol Region, Southern & Central Luzon incl. Mindoro & Marinduque, Palawan and Western Visayas. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains & squalls will be expected. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West Philippine and Visayan Sea will be rough & dangerous.

Residents and visitors along the northeast coast of Luzon, Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands should closely monitor the progress of MAWAR (AMBO).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Sun June 03 2012
Location of Eye: 19.1º N Lat 125.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 362 km NE of Palanan Bay, Isabela
Distance 2: 377 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 405 km ENE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 4: 389 km East of Calayan Is.
Distance 5: 369 km SE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 6: 417 km ENE of Ilagan City
Distance 7: 460 km NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 8: 648 km NNE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 9: 672 km NNE of Metro Manila
Distance 10: 865 km SSW of Okinawa, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (110 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyu Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 510 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 610 km (330 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Sun June 03

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

MAWAR is expected to continue moving NNE for the next 24 hours before turning NE to ENE-ward over the next 48 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of MAWAR will pass to the southeast of Okinawa, Japan on Tuesday early morning and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 165 km/hr (90 knots) with higher gusts. MAWAR is expected to reach Category 3 status later tonight or early Monday, before losing strength sometime Tuesday. It will start to transition into an Extratropical Cyclone by Wednesday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 45 kilometers (25 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 285 kilometers (155 nautical miles). MAWAR is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 610 kilometers (330 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY MORNING: Attains Category 3 status...accelerates NNE towards Okinawa-Ryukyu Area [8AM JUN 04: 21.5N 126.2E @ 205kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Weakens to Category 2 as it passes to the SE of Okinawa...exits PAR [8AM JUN 05: 25.4N 129.6E @ 160kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) while passing well to the south of Japan...becoming Extratropical [8AM JUN 06: 29.4N 135.9E @ 110kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CLOUD-FILLED/RAGGED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...no longer affecting any land areas. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 510 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of MAWAR (AMBO). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Group of Islands, Isabela, and Cagayan. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern & Southern Luzon including Bicol Region. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TY MAWAR (AMBO)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0412.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: MAWAR's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY MAWAR (AMBO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm