Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS MAWAR [AMBO]

for Saturday, 02 June 2012 [12:44 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday June 02 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MAWAR (AMBO).

MAWAR MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TROPICAL STORM MAWAR [AMBO/04W/1203]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Sat 02 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #006/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm MAWAR (AMBO) nears typhoon strength as it continues to rapidly intensify while to the east of Isabela.

MAWAR (AMBO) will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Bicol Region, Southern Luzon, Metro Manila, Palawan and Western Visayas. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains will be expected.

Residents and visitors along the east coast of Luzon should closely monitor the progress of MAWAR (AMBO).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Sat June 02 2012
Location of Center: 17.0º N Lat 124.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 160 km East of Palanan Bay, Isabela
Distance 2: 221 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 3: 235 km ESE of Ilagan City
Distance 4: 245 km East of Cauayan City
Distance 5: 253 km ESE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 6: 289 km SE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 7: 290 km ENE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 8: 343 km NNE of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 9: 379 km North of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 10: 388 km NNE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 11: 410 km NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: North Philippine Sea
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 600 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Tue June 02

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

MAWAR is expected to turn North for the next 12 hours, before making a recurvature towards the NNE or NE through 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of MAWAR will pass to the southeast of Okinawa, Japan on Tuesday morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. MAWAR is expected to continue gaining strength and will become a typhoon later today or early Sunday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 120 kilometers (65 nautical miles) from the center. MAWAR is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 370 kilometers (200 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY MORNING: Upgraded to a Typhoon while to the east of Extreme Northern Luzon...recurving NNE [8AM JUN 03: 18.5N 124.6E @ 130kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Attains Category 2 status as it maintains its NNE path away from Luzon and towards Okinawa area [8AM JUN 04: 21.1N 126.2E @ 160kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Starts losing strength as it moves into unfavorable conditions of the North Philippine Sea...passing well to the southeast of Okinawa while exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) [8AM JUN 05: 24.7N 129.0E @ 140kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (Northern Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas...possible "Eye" forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (95-117 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO). INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along these bands.
THIN OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the East Coast of Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora & Quezon Provinces including Polillo Island. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 600 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of MAWAR (AMBO). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Polillo Is., Northern Quezon, Aurora, Isabela, and Cagayan. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TS MAWAR (AMBO)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0412.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: MAWAR's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

_____________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS MAWAR (AMBO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm