Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS TALIM [06W]

for Tuesday, 19 June 2012 [6:52 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday June 18 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS (except SMART/TNT - due to technical adjustments) & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALIM.

TALIM MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 80 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TROPICAL STORM TALIM [06W/1205]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Tue 19 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #007/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm TALIM (06W) continues to accelerate towards the ENE in the direction of Taiwan Strait.

TALIM (06W) will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Vietnam, the West Philippine Sea and Northwestern Luzon (Ilocos Provinces down to La Union). Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along these areas. The seas along the coastal areas along the South China and West Philippine Seas will be moderate to rough & dangerous.

Residents and visitors along Taiwan, Southeastern China and Extreme Northern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of Talim (06W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue June 19 2012
Location of Center: 20.5� N Lat 116.1� E Lon
Distance 1: 273 km SE of Hong Kong
Distance 2: 329 km SE of Macau
Distance 3: 328 km SSW of Shantou, China
Distance 4: 375 km West of P.A.R.
Distance 5: 493 km WSW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 6: 490 km SSW of Xiamen, China
Distance 7: 537 km NW of Laoag City
Distance 8: 614 km West of Basco, Batanes
Distance 9: 594 km West of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 10: 754 km SW of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: ENE @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Taiwan Strait
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 420 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 815 km (440 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 23 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Tue June 19

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

TALIM is expected to move rapidly northeast to east-northeastward for the next 2 to 3 days. On the forecast track, the core of TALIM will move across Taiwan Strait on Wednesday afternoon and pass more or less 75 km to the North of Taipei before midnight Thursday. TALIM will enter the East China Sea Thursday and will traverse Japan (thru Kyushu, Shikoku and Honshu) on Friday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations on its strength is likely as TALIM interacts with the terrain of Taiwan and Southeastern China. Thereafter, it will become an Extratropical Cyclone as it moves across mainland Japan on Friday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers (120 nautical miles) from the center. TALIM is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 815 kilometers (440 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a minimal Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves across Taiwan Strait...about 139 km ESE of Xiamen, China [2PM JUN 20: 24.1N 119.4E @ 65kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Accelerating rapidly northeastward while moving across the East China Sea...becoming Extratropical as it re-intensifies...about 381 km NNW of Okinawa, Japan [2PM JUN 21: 29.7N 126.4E @ 85kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes Extratropical while over Central Honshu [2PM JUN 22: 36.0N 136.4E @ 55kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 420 mm (high) along areas near the center of Talim (06W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Southern & Southeastern China. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Western Luzon and Vietnam. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS TALIM (06W)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0612.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: TALIM's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

_____________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS TALIM (06W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm