Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS GUCHOL [05W]

for Wednesday, 13 June 2012 [8:06 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday June 11 2012):

Now issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on GUCHOL (05W).

GUCHOL MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): --- km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TROPICAL STORM GUCHOL [05W/1204]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 008
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Wed 13 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #010/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm GUCHOL (05W) has accelerated towards the WNW...now passing north of Yap Island. Stormy weather occurring across the area.

GUCHOL (05W) is forecast to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) Mindanao beginning Thursday and across Visayas, Western & Southern Luzon incl. Palawan, Mindoro & Metro Manila this weekend. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West Philippine and Visayan Sea will become moderate to rough.

Residents and visitors along Yap, Ulithi, Palau and the rest of Western Micronesia should closely monitor the progress of GUCHOL (05W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed June 13 2012
Location of Center: 10.9º N Lat 138.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 162 km NNE of Yap, FSM
Distance 2: 382 km East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 602 km NE of Koror, Palau
Distance 4: 739 km WSW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 5: 1,475 km East of Leyte, PHL
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 300 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 295 km (160 nm) [Small]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Wed June 13

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

GUCHOL is expected to continue moving WNW-ward for the next 48 hours, before turning slightly NW-ward by 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of GUCHOL will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) Thursday afternoon or evening and move across the Philippine Sea through Saturday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 75 km/hr (40 knots) with higher gusts. GUCHOL will continue gaining strength and will become a Typhoon (TY) on Friday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: About to enter the PAR...nearing typhoon strength [2PM JUN 14: 11.4N 135.7E @ 100kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon after entering the PAR...cruising across the Philippine Sea on a northwesterly course [2PM JUN 15: 13.2N 131.8E @ 120kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Turns NNW-ward while over the Philippine Sea...continues gaining strength...about 673 km East of Casiguran, Aurora [2PM JUN 16: 16.1N 128.4E @ 140kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Yap and Ulithi Islands. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the rest of Western Micronesia incl. Palau. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 300 mm (high) along areas near the center of GUCHOL (05W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Yap, Ulithi, Palau and other nearby islands of Micronesia. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern Philippines. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS GUCHOL (05W)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: GUCHOL's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS GUCHOL (05W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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