Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS TALIM [06W]

for Wednesday, 20 June 2012 [7:41 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday June 18 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS (except SMART/TNT - due to technical adjustments) & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALIM.

TALIM MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TROPICAL STORM TALIM [06W/1205]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Wed 20 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #009/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm TALIM (06W) has maintained its strength despite some unfavorable conditions along its way...may pass over Taiwan Strait today.

TALIM (06W) will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Vietnam, the West Philippine Sea and Northwestern Luzon (Ilocos Provinces down to La Union) incl. Batanes. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along these areas. The seas along the coastal areas along the South China and West Philippine Seas will be moderate to rough & dangerous.

Residents and visitors along Taiwan, Southeastern China and Extreme Northern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of Talim (06W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed June 20 2012
Location of Center: 22.3� N Lat 117.2� E Lon
Distance 1: 133 km SSE of Shantou, China
Distance 2: 261 km SSW of Xiamen, China
Distance 3: 309 km East of Hong Kong
Distance 4: 288 km West of P.A.R.
Distance 5: 320 km West of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 6: 504 km WNW of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 7: 536 km WNW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 8: 577 km NW of Laoag City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: NE @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Taiwan Strait
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 815 km (440 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 27 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Wed June 20

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

TALIM is expected to move rapidly northeast to east-northeastward for the next 2 to 3 days. On the forecast track, the core of TALIM will move across Taiwan Strait this afternoon and pass more or less 85 km to the Northwest of Taipei before midnight tonight. TALIM will enter the East China Sea Thursday and will traverse the Southern Coastline of Japan on Friday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. Some additional intensification can be expected as the system moves along the Taiwan Strait and into the East China Sea. TALIM will become an Extratropical Cyclone as it moves across the Southern Coast of Japan on Friday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 150 kilometers (80 nautical miles) from the center. TALIM is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 815 kilometers (440 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifying slightly as it enters the East China Sea...about 258 km NNE of Taipei, Taiwan [2AM JUN 21: 27.0N 122.9E @ 95kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Making landfall along the Southern portion of Kyushu, Japan or very near Kagoshima City...becoming Extratropical [2AM JUN 22: 31.5N 130.6E @ 75kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes Extratropical while over East Coast of Honshu [2AM JUN 23: 35.5N 143.2E @ 55kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Taiwan and Batanes Group of Islands. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of Talim (06W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Taiwan, Batanes Group & Southeastern China. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Western Luzon and Vietnam. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS TALIM (06W)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0612.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: TALIM's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

_____________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS TALIM (06W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm