Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon GUCHOL [BUTCHOY]

for Saturday, 16 June 2012 [7:06 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday June 14 2012):

Now issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS (except SMART/TNT - due to technical adjustments) & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on GUCHOL (BUTCHOY).

GUCHOL MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 220 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON GUCHOL [BUTCHOY/05W/1204]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 017
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sat 16 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #022/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

Powerful Typhoon GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) has strengthened rapidly into a dangerous 220-km/hr howler...likely to become the 1st Super Typhoon of 2012. Thick Monsoon Rainclouds approaching Western Luzon including Metro Manila and Mindoro.

GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Visayas & Luzon particularly the western sections tonight until Tuesday. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected. The seas along the coastal areas along the West Philippine and Visayan Sea will become moderate to rough & dangerous.

Residents and visitors along the East Coast of the Philippines and the Southern Islands of Japan, particularly Okinawa and Ryukyu should closely monitor the progress of GUCHOL (BUTCHOY).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Fri June 15 2012
Location of Eye: 14.7º N Lat 129.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 520 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 532 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 569 km ENE of Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 4: 572 km ENE of Sorsogon City
Distance 5: 599 km ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 6: 621 km ENE of Iriga City
Distance 7: 637 km ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 8: 660 km ENE of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 9: 758 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 10: 785 km East of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 11: 860 km East of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 220 kph (120 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 270 kph (145 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 24 kph (13 kts)
Towards: North Philippine Sea
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 400 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 933 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 740 km (400 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 40 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Sat June 16

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) is expected to continue moving north-northwestward with a faster speed for the next 24 to 36 hours and will recurve sharply NNE-ward between 48 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of GUCHOL will just move across the open waters of the North Philippine Sea, passing more or less 600 km to the east of the Philippines through Monday - without hitting any land areas. It will be moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) Monday afternoon and will be passing close to Okinawa Monday evening.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to near 220 km/hr (120 knots) with higher gusts. GUCHOL will continue gaining strength and will become a Super Typhoon on Sunday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 185 kilometers (100 nautical miles. GUCHOL is now a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 740 kilometers (400 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Attains Super Typhoon status while moving NNW across the North Philippine Sea...about 609 km ESE of Basco, Batanes [2PM JUN 17: 19.0N 127.6E @ 240kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Starts recurving towards the NE as it reaches its peak intensity...approaching the PAR...about 269 km South of Okinawa Island, Japan [2PM JUN 18: 24.1N 128.1E @ 250kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Accelerates NE-ward towards Southern Japan...just to the south of of Shikoku...about 256 km South of Kochi, Japan [2PM JUN 19: 31.2N 133.6E @ 175kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Philippine Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 400 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of GUCHOL (BUTCHOY). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TY GUCHOL (BUTCHOY)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: GUCHOL's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY GUCHOL (BUTCHOY)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm