Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS TALIM [CARINA]

for Thursday, 21 June 2012 [8:48 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday June 18 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS (except SMART/TNT - due to technical adjustments) & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALIM.

TALIM MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 70 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TROPICAL STORM TALIM [CARINA/06W/1205]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 008
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Thu 21 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #013/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

TALIM (06W) has briefly entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) last night as it accelerates across the East China Sea...downgraded to a Tropical Depression. The system was locally named CARINA by the Philippines' Weather Bureau (PAGASA).

TALIM (CARINA) will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Western Luzon (from Ilocos Provinces down to Bataan) incl. Benguet and Batanes. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along these areas. The seas along the coastal areas along the South China and West Philippine Seas will be moderate to rough & dangerous.

Residents and visitors along Taiwan, Southeastern China and Extreme Northern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of Talim (06W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu June 21 2012
Location of Center: 26.1� N Lat 122.3� E Lon
Distance 1: 141 km NNE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 2: 270 km SE of Wenzhou, China
Distance 3: 261 km NW of Ishigaki Jima
Distance 4: 244 km NNE of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 5: 550 km West of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 6: 439 km NNE of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 7: 591 NNE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 8: 623 km North of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: NE @ 26 kph (14 kts)
Towards: Western Japan
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 300 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): 685 km (370 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 25 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Thu June 21

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

TALIM (CARINA) is expected to move rapidly northeast to east-northeastward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of TALIM will move across the East China Sea today and will pass along the Southern Coastline of Japan on Friday through Saturday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. TALIM will become an Extratropical Cyclone today as it approaches Kyushu, Japan.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes Extratropical as it approaches Kyushu, Japan...about 113 km WSW of Kagoshima, Japan [2AM JUN 22: 31.2N 129.5E @ 55kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Just along the Southeastern Coast of Honshu, about 120 km SE of Tokyo...moving ENE towards the open seas. [2AM JUN 23: 35.1N 140.8E @ 45kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Batanes Group of Islands and Taiwan. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 300 mm (high) along areas near the center of Talim (Carina). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TD TALIM (CARINA)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0612.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: TALIM's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS TALIM (06W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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