Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Super Typhoon GUCHOL [BUTCHOY]

for Sunday, 17 June 2012 [1:00 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday June 15 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS (except SMART/TNT - due to technical adjustments) & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on GUCHOL (BUTCHOY).

GUCHOL MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 240 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 220 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

SUPER TYPHOON GUCHOL [BUTCHOY/05W/1204]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 019
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Sun 17 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #025/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

Super Typhoon GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) continues to track NNW across the North Philippine Sea with little change in strength.

STY GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Western Visayas & Western Luzon including Metro Manila & Subic today until Tuesday. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected. The seas along the coastal areas along the West Philippine and Visayan Sea will be moderate to rough & dangerous.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon and the Southern Islands of Japan, particularly Okinawa and Ryukyu should closely monitor the progress of GUCHOL (BUTCHOY).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Sun June 17 2012
Location of Eye: 18.0� N Lat 127.3� E Lon
Distance 1: 585 km NNE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 598 km NE of Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 3: 588 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 657 km NE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 5: 519 km ENE of Palanan Bay, Isabela
Distance 6: 590 km East of Ilagan City
Distance 7: 606 km ENE of Cauayan City
Distance 8: 594 km ENE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 9: 593 km ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 10: 622 km SE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 11: 762 km NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 240 kph (130 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 295 kph (160 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: North Philippine Sea
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 250 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 740 km (400 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 48 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Sun June 17

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) is expected to continue moving north-northwestward with a faster speed for the next 12 to 24 hours and will recurve sharply NNE-ward between 36 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of GUCHOL will just move across the open waters of the North Philippine Sea, passing more or less 600 km to the east of the Philippines through Monday - without hitting any land areas. It will be moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) Monday afternoon and will be passing close to Okinawa Monday evening. On Wednesday early morning, GUCHOL will be just along the Southern Coast of Honshu, approaching Metropolitan Tokyo.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 240 km/hr (130 knots) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations on its strength will be expected until it starts to weaken on Tuesday. GUCHOL will start to transition into an Extratropical Cyclone on Wednesday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 285 kilometers (155 nautical miles. GUCHOL is now a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 740 kilometers (400 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY MORNING: Maintains its Super Typhoon strength...starts recurving towards the NE, farther away from the Philippine Sea...about 594 km ESE of Hualien, Taiwan [8AM JUN 18: 22.9N 127.3E @ 240kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: No longer a Super Typhoon, but remains a dangerous Category 4 Typhoon...already outside the P.A.R., approaching the Southern Coast of Japan...about 213 km NE of Naje Island, Japan [8AM JUN 19: 29.7N 131.6E @ 215kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Weakens to Category 1...accelerates NE-ward while passing very close to Metropolitan Tokyo...becoming Extratropical...about 84 km SE of Tokyo, Japan [8AM JUN 20: 35.2N 140.4E @ 150kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

SYMMETRICAL EYE - over water (Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Philippine Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 250 mm (high) along areas near the center of GUCHOL (BUTCHOY). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA), a new system located over the northern part of the South China Sea has remains almost stationary. Its developing center was located about 1156 km ESE of Surigao City (19.0N 111.1E)...maximum sustained winds of 30 kph. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential is at MEDIUM (50%).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: WESTERN VISAYAS including ROMBLON and BORACAY; SOUTHWESTERN LUZON (Zambales-Bataan-Cavite-Batangas-Lubang Is.-Mindoro) including METRO MANILA and SUBIC. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for STY GUCHOL (BUTCHOY)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: GUCHOL's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on STY GUCHOL (BUTCHOY)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm