Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon MAWAR [AMBO]

for Tuesday, 05 June 2012 [6:59 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday June 02 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MAWAR (AMBO).

MAWAR MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON MAWAR [AMBO/04W/1203]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 012
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Tue 05 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #017/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

Typhoon MAWAR (AMBO) has zoomed out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it passed to the southeast of Okinawa...continues to weaken.

MAWAR (AMBO) will slightly enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Palawan. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains & squalls will be expected. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West Philippine and Visayan Sea will be rough & dangerous.

Sailors, Mariners and Sea Navigators near its path should closely monitor the progress of MAWAR (AMBO).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Tue June 05 2012
Location of Eye: 25.4º N Lat 129.5º E Lon (Relocated)
Distance 1: 201 km SE of Naha, Okinawa
Distance 2: 209 km SE of Okinawa City
Distance 3: 212 km SE of Kadena Airbase
Distance 4: 357 km South of Naje Is.
Distance 5: 541 km ENE of Ishigaki Jima
Distance 6: 939 km NE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 7: 941 km NE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 8: 1,066 km NE of Calayan Is.
Distance 9: 1,126 km NE of Aparri, Cagayan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 160 kph (85 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 195 kph (105 kts)
Present Movement: ENE @ 26 kph (14 kts)
Towards: NW Pacific Ocean
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 120 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 760 km (410 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 34 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Tue June 05

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

MAWAR is expected to move ENE for the next 24 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of MAWAR will pass well to the south of Honshu, Japan on Wednesday and to the south of Kuril Islands Thursday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 160 km/hr (85 knots) with higher gusts. MAWAR is now on its decaying stages as the system moves into cooler sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and unfavorable upper-level environs. This system will become an Extratropical Cyclone on Thursday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 45 kilometers (25 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 280 kilometers (150 nautical miles). MAWAR is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 760 kilometers (410 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens to Category 1 while outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...accelerating ENE-ward across the open seas to the south of Honshu, Japan [2AM JUN 06: 28.7N 136.1E @ 130kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS)...becomes Extratropical while to the south of the Kuril Islands [2AM JUN 07: 35.4N 147.4E @ 95kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (Northwest Pacific Ocean). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Northwest Pacific Ocean). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Northwest Pacific Ocean)...not affecting any land areas. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 120 mm (high) along areas near the center of MAWAR (AMBO). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Southern Japan. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY MAWAR (AMBO)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0412.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: MAWAR's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY MAWAR (AMBO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm