Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS DOKSURI [DINDO]

for Wednesday, 27 June 2012 [7:44 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday June 27 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS, Twitter & iTyphoon app updates on DOKSURI.

DOKSURI MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TROPICAL STORM DOKSURI [DINDO/07W/1206]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Wed 27 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #004/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm DOKSURI (DINDO) moving NNW as its mid-level raincloud circulation remains displaced to the west of the low-level center. Southwestern outer rainbands continues to spread across Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas.

DOKSURI (DINDO) will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Southern Luzon and Western Visayas. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along these areas today and Thursday.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the progress on Doksuri (Dindo).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Wed June 27 2012
Location of Center: 17.0� N Lat 127.5� E Lon
Distance 1: 532 km East of Palanan Bay, Isabela
Distance 2: 582 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 3: 585 km ESE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 606 km ESE of Ilagan City
Distance 5: 617 km East of Cauayan City
Distance 6: 619 km ESE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 7: 634 ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 8: 683 km ESE of Calayan Island
Distance 9: 698 km SE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 10: 735 km ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Balintang Channel
CPA [ETA] to Northern Cagayan: Thursday Evening [7-8PM PhT]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 380 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Wed June 27

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

DOKSURI (DINDO) is expected to continue moving west-northwestward through 48 hours before taking a slight northwesterly track by 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Doksuri will pass near the Northeastern Coast of Cagayan between 7-8 PM on Thursday and move very close to Calayan Island around midnight Friday, before exiting into West Philippine Sea. The storm will pass very close approximately 14 km to the NE of Hong Kong Harbour on Saturday afternoon.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. Continued increase in strength will be expected as the system moves across Balintang Channel and into the West Philippine Sea. DOKSURI will start losing strength prior in making landfall over Guangdong Province, Southern China on Friday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 km/hr) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center. DOKSURI is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 890 kilometers (480 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifying as it approaches the coast of Northern Cagayan...about 140 km ESE of Santa Ana, Cagayan [2PM JUN 28: 18.2N 123.5E @ 85kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Moving into the West Philippine Sea after crossing Balintang Channel...about 310 km WNW of Calayan Island...intensifying at near-typhoon strength [2PM JUN 29: 20.2N 118.7E @ 100kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Just along the coast of Guangdong Province, Southern China...about 14 km NE of Hong Kong Harbour...weakening [2PM JUN 30: 22.2N 114.6E @ 85kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas...will reach Cagayan and Isabela Thursday morning.
OUTER SOUTHWESTERN/WESTERN RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas...will reach Cagayan and Isabela tonight. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 380 mm (high) along areas near the center of Doksuri (Dindo). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region and Eastern Luzon. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Luzon and Visayas. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TS DOKSURI (DINDO)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0712.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: DOKSULI's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS DOKSURI (DINDO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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