Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 05W [UNNAMED]

for Tuesday, 12 June 2012 [7:50 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday June 11 2012):

Now issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on 05W (UNNAMED).

05W MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): --- km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Tue 12 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #004/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

05W (UNNAMED) may become a Tropical Storm today...maintains its westerly track towards Western Micronesia.

Residents and visitors along Yap, Ulithi, Palau and the rest of Western Micronesia should closely monitor the progress of 05W (UNNAMED).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue June 12 2012
Location of Center: 9.6º N Lat 144.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 426 km South of Guam, CNMI
Distance 2: 680 km East of Yap, FSM
Distance 3: 1,020 km East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 1,108 km ENE of Koror, Palau
Distance 5: 2,017 km East of Northern Mindanao
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Yap-Ulithi Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 450 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TD
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) [N/A]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Tue June 12

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

05W is expected to move generally WNW-ward for the next 48 hours, before turning slightly NW-ward by 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of 05W will pass to the north of Yap and Ulithi Islands by early Wednesday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. 05W will become a Tropical Storm (TS) today, and eventually into a Typhoon (TY) late Thursday or early Friday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Upgraded to TS classification while passing in between Guam and Yap Islands [2AM JUN 13: 10.5N 141.3E @ 75kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Passing to the north of Yap and Ulithi Islands...maintains its WNW track towards the Philippine Sea [2AM JUN 14: 11.4N 138.0E @ 100kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...strengthens into a Category 1 Typhoon...about 1,050 km East of Bicol Region, Philippines [2AM JUN 15: 13.0N 134.0E @ 120kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not yet affecting any land areas. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 450 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of 05W (UNNAMED). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TD 05W (UNNAMED)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0512.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: 05W's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD 05W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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