Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS TALIM [06W]

for Tuesday, 19 June 2012 [8:00 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday June 18 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS (except SMART/TNT - due to technical adjustments) & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALIM.

TALIM MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TROPICAL STORM TALIM [06W/1205]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Tue 19 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #005/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm TALIM (06W) moving slowly ENE while over the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea)...may strengthen slighlty.

TALIM (06W) will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Vietnam and the West Philippine Sea. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along these areas. The seas along the coastal areas along the South China and West Philippine Seas will be moderate to rough & dangerous.

Residents and visitors along Taiwan, Southeastern China and Extreme Northern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of TALIM (06W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue June 19 2012
Location of Center: 19.5� N Lat 114.4� E Lon
Distance 1: 300 km South of Hong Kong
Distance 2: 310 km SSE of Macau
Distance 3: 377 km West of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 410 km East of Qionghai, Hainan Is.
Distance 5: 668 km WNW of Laoag City
Distance 6: 702 km WSW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 7: 802 km WSW of Basco, Batanes.
Distance 8: 786 km WSW of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 9: 960 km SW of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 10: 745 km WNW of Calayan Island
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: ENE @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: Taiwan
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 450 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 720 km (390 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Tue June 19

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

TALIM is expected to move northeastward for the next 2 to 3 days. On the forecast track, the core of TALIM will move into Taiwan Strait on Wednesday and brush the northern tip of Taiwan by early morning Thursday...passing over or very close to Taipei. TALIM will then be moving across the East China Sea early Friday as it approaches the Southwest Coast of Kyushu, Japan.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. TALIM will gain strength reaching peak wind intensity of 100 km/hr before it interacts to the terrain of Taiwan. Thereafter, it will start transforming into an Extratropical Cyclone.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 205 kilometers (110 nautical miles) from the center. TALIM is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 720 kilometers (390 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Gaining strength as it tracks northeastward near the Southeastern Coast of China...moving into Taiwan Strait...about 178 km South of Shantou, China [2AM JUN 20: 21.8N 116.8E @ 95kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Brushing the northern tip of Taiwan...passing over or very close to Taipei [2AM JUN 21: 25.7N 121.3E @ 95kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakened to a minimal Tropical Storm as it moves across the East China Sea...becoming Extratropical while approaching the Southwest Coast of Kyushu, Japan [2AM JUN 22: 30.5N 127.6E @ 75kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 450 mm (high) along areas near the center of Talim (06W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Southern & Southeastern China. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Western Luzon and Vietnam. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS TALIM (06W)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0612.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: TALIM's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

_____________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS TALIM (06W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm