Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon MAWAR [AMBO]

for Saturday, 02 June 2012 [7:04 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday June 02 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MAWAR (AMBO).

MAWAR MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON MAWAR [AMBO/04W/1203]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sat 02 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #007/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

MAWAR (AMBO) rapidly strengthens into a Typhoon as it crawls northward near the coast of Isabela and Cagayan. Outer rainbands spreading across Cagayan, Isabela & Aurora.

MAWAR (AMBO) will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Metro Manila, Bicol Region, Southern & Central Luzon incl. Mindoro & Marinduque, Palawan and Visayas. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains & squalls will be expected. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West Philippine and Visayan Sea will be rough & dangerous.

Residents and visitors along the northeast coast of Luzon should closely monitor the progress of MAWAR (AMBO).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sat June 02 2012
Location of Eye: 17.7º N Lat 124.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 179 km ENE of Palanan Bay, Isabela
Distance 2: 250 km ENE of Ilagan City
Distance 3: 255 km East of Tuguegarao City
Distance 4: 265 km ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 5: 270 km ENE of Cauayan City
Distance 6: 270 km NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 7: 382 km SE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 8: 420 km NNE of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 9: 466 km NNE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 10: 478 km NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: North Philippine Sea
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 750 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 500 km (270 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 24 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Tue June 02

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

MAWAR is expected to start recurving for the next 12 to 24 hours and will accelerate slightly NNE through 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of MAWAR will pass to the southeast of Okinawa, Japan on Tuesday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. MAWAR is expected to continue gaining strength and will become a Category 2 Typhoon on Monday. It will start losing strength beginning Tuesday as the system moves into an area of cooler, unfavorable sea surface conditions.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 20 kilometers (10 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 140 kilometers (75 nautical miles). MAWAR is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 500 kilometers (270 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to intensify, far to the east of the Batanes Group of Islands...accelerating slightly NNE [2PM JUN 03: 19.2N 124.9E @ 150kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Reaches Category 2 status while maintaining its NNE track away from Extreme Northern Luzon, towards Okinawa area [2PM JUN 04: 21.8N 126.6E @ 160kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Starts losing strength as it moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...passing to the southeast of Okinawa Island [2PM JUN 05: 25.3N 129.7E @ 140kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
DEVELOPING EYEWALL - over water (Philippine Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the Cagayan, Isabela and Aurora Provinces. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 750 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of MAWAR (AMBO). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Aurora, Isabela, and Cagayan. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern & Southern Luzon including Bicol Region. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TY MAWAR (AMBO)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0412.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: MAWAR's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY MAWAR (AMBO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm