Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon GUCHOL [BUTCHOY]

for Saturday, 16 June 2012 [7:43 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday June 14 2012):

Now issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS (except SMART/TNT - due to technical adjustments) & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on GUCHOL (BUTCHOY).

GUCHOL MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON GUCHOL [BUTCHOY/05W/1204]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 015
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sat 16 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #020/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) has accelerated north-northwestward during the past 12 hours...now a major Category 3 Typhoon. Outermost rainbands spreading across Eastern Visayas & Eastern Bicol.

GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) is forecast to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Visayas & Luzon particularly the western sections beginning today until Wednesday. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected. The seas along the coastal areas along the West Philippine and Visayan Sea will become moderate to rough & dangerous.

Residents and visitors along the East Coast of the Philippines should closely monitor the progress of GUCHOL (BUTCHOY).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Fri June 15 2012
Location of Eye: 12.5º N Lat 130.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 531 km ENE of Borongan City
Distance 2: 584 km ENE of Tacloban City
Distance 3: 608 km East of Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 4: 661 km ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 5: 675 km ESE of Sorsogon City
Distance 6: 708 km ESE of Legazpi City
Distance 7: 708 km ESE of Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 8: 744 km ESE of Iriga City
Distance 9: 768 km ESE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 10: 810 km ESE of Daet, CamNorte
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 185 kph (100 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 230 kph (125 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 480 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 520 km (280 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 35 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Sat June 16

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) is expected to continue moving north-northwestward with a faster speed for the next 24 to 36 hours and will turn Northward by 48 hours. By 72 hours, GUCHOL will start recurving towards the NNE. On the forecast track, the core of GUCHOL will just move across the open waters of the North Philippine Sea, passing more or less 500 km to the east of the Philippines through Monday - without hitting any land areas. It will be moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Monday evening and will pass very close to Okinawa on Tuesday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 185 km/hr (100 knots) with higher gusts. GUCHOL will continue gaining strength and will become a dangerous Category 4 Typhoon on Monday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 160 kilometers (85 nautical miles. GUCHOL is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 520 kilometers (280 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Starts to accelerate north-northwestward while over the Philippine Sea...nears Category 4 strength...about 662 km East of Casiguran, Aurora [2AM JUN 17: 16.1N 128.3E @ 205kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Reaches Category 4 strength...almost a Super Typhoon...accelerates and turns toward the North away from the Philippine Sea...about 568 km ENE of Basco, Batanes [2AM JUN 18: 21.3N 127.4E @ 230kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Moving away from Okinawa, after passing close to the island...already outside of PAR as it starts losing strength...about 178 km ENE of Okinawa, Japan [2AM JUN 19: 27.0N 129.5E @ 195kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Philippine Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Eastern Bicol and Eastern Visayas. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 480 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of GUCHOL (BUTCHOY). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TY GUCHOL (BUTCHOY)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: GUCHOL's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY GUCHOL (BUTCHOY)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm