Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS DOKSURI [DINDO]

for Wednesday, 27 June 2012 [3:00 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday June 27 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS, Twitter & iTyphoon app updates on DOKSURI.

DOKSURI MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TROPICAL STORM DOKSURI [DINDO/07W/1206]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Wed 27 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #003/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm DOKSURI (DINDO) has been slightly disorganized as strong upper-level winds (aka. Vertical Wind Shear) buffeted its circulation, pushing most of its mid-level convective rainbands west of the low-level center. Southwestern outer rainbands continues to spread across Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas.

DOKSURI (DINDO) will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Southern Luzon and Western Visayas. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along these areas today and Thursday.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the progress on Doksuri (Dindo).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Wed June 27 2012
Location of Center: 15.6� N Lat 127.8� E Lon
Distance 1: 447 km NE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 421 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 474 km NE of Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 4: 543 km ENE of Naga City/CWC
Distance 5: 552 km ENE of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 6: 613 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 7: 660 ENE of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 8: 730 km ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 26 kph (14 kts)
Towards: Northeastern Luzon
CPA [ETA] to Northern Cagayan: Thursday Morning [10-11AM PhT]
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 380 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Wed June 27

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

DOKSURI (DINDO) is expected to continue moving west-northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Doksuri will make landfall along Northern Cagayan between 10-11AM on Thursday and pass very close to the towns of Gonzaga and Aparri around noontime til 2PM (Thu), before exiting into West Philippine Sea via Pagudpod, Ilocos Norte. The storm will pass approximately 60 km to the south of Hong Kong Harbour Saturday morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. Continued increase in strength will be expected as the system moves across Northeastern Luzon and into the West Philippine Sea. DOKSURI will start losing strength prior in making landfall over Guangdong Province, Southern China on Friday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 km/hr) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center. DOKSURI is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 890 kilometers (480 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY MORNING: Intensifying as it bears down the coast of Northern Cagayan...about 109 km SE of Santa Ana, Cagayan [8AM JUN 28: 17.7N 122.7E @ 100kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Moving into the West Philippine Sea after crossing the Northern Coast of Cagayan...about 323 km WNW of Pagudpod, Ilocos Norte...intensifying at near-typhoon strength [8AM JUN 29: 20.0N 118.1E @ 110kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Just along the coast of Guangdong Province, Southern China...about 60 km South of Hong Kong Harbour...weakening [8AM JUN 30: 21.8N 114.0E @ 85kph].

**Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): There is a possibility that DOKSURI (DINDO) will move more northwesterly and pass along Balintang Channel...passing near Calayan and Batanes Group of Islands. This scenario may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge northeast of the storm weakens.

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas...will reach Cagayan and Isabela Thursday morning. OUTER SOUTHWESTERN/WESTERN RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas...will reach Cagayan and Isabela tonight. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 380 mm (high) along areas near the center of Doksuri (Dindo). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern Luzon and Visayas. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TS DOKSURI (DINDO)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0712.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: DOKSULI's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS DOKSURI (DINDO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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