Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS DOKSURI [DINDO]

for Wednesday, 27 June 2012 [1:59 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday June 27 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS, Twitter & iTyphoon app updates on DOKSURI.

DOKSURI MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TROPICAL STORM DOKSURI [DINDO/07W/1206]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001
12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Wed 27 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #001/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

The strong disturbance (LPA) over the Philippine Sea which strengthened into a Depression last night - has strengthened into a Tropical Storm known internationally as DOKSURI (DINDO). Doksuri is a Korean word for an eagle. Its rainbands now spreading across Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region.

DOKSURI (DINDO) will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Southern Luzon and Western Visayas. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along these areas.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the progress on Doksuri (Dindo).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 AM PhT Wed June 27 2012
Location of Center: 14.5� N Lat 129.5� E Lon
Distance 1: 580 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 573 km East of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 619 km ENE of Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 4: 687 km ENE of Naga City/CWC
Distance 5: 712 km ENE of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 6: 815 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 7: 840 East of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 8: 904 km East of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Eastern Luzon
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 380 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 PM PhT Wed June 27

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

DOKSURI (DINDO) is expected to move generally west-northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Doksuri will pass very close to the northern tip of Cagayan...near Santa Ana, Cagayan on Thursday evening and traverse the Balintang Channel on Friday morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) is near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. Continued increase in strength will be expected as the system moves closer to Extreme Northern Luzon and will be at near-typhoon intensity on Friday morning.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 km/hr) extend outward up to 35 kilometers (20 nautical miles) from the center. DOKSURI is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 890 kilometers (480 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY EVENING: Intensifying as it moves across the Philippine Sea closer to Northern Luzon...about 450 km East of Palanan Bay, Isabela [8PM JUN 27: 16.8N 126.7E @ 85kph].
THURSDAY EVENING: Passing very close to the northern tip of Cagayan, about 54 km NE of Santa Ana, Cagayan [8PM JUN 28: 18.8N 122.6E @ 95kph].
FRIDAY EVENING: Almost a typhoon as it moves into the West Philippine Sea...about 276 km WNW of Calayan Island [8PM JUN 29: 20.1N 119.0E @ 100kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 380 mm (high) along areas near the center of Doksuri (Dindo). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Western Luzon and Vietnam. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS DOKSURI (DINDO)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0712.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: DOKSULI's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS DOKSURI (DINDO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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