Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Super Typhoon GUCHOL [BUTCHOY]

for Sunday, 17 June 2012 [7:06 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday June 15 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS (except SMART/TNT - due to technical adjustments) & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on GUCHOL (BUTCHOY).

GUCHOL MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 240 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 220 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 205 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

SUPER TYPHOON GUCHOL [BUTCHOY/05W/1204]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 020
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sun 17 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #026/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

Super Typhoon GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) has started to move on a northerly direction...may leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) Monday late afternoon.

STY GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Western Visayas & Western Luzon including Metro Manila & Subic today until Tuesday. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected. The seas along the coastal areas along the West Philippine and Visayan Sea will be moderate to rough & dangerous.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon and the Southern Islands of Japan, particularly Okinawa and Ryukyu should closely monitor the progress of GUCHOL (BUTCHOY).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sun June 17 2012
Location of Eye: 19.3� N Lat 127.2� E Lon
Distance 1: 560 km ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 588 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 598 km East of Calayan Is., Cagayan
Distance 4: 587 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 5: 610 km ENE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 6: 616 km ENE of Ilagan City
Distance 7: 639 km NE of Cauayan City
Distance 8: 641 km NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 9: 711 km NNE of Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 10: 803 km South of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 11: 840 km NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 240 kph (130 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 295 kph (160 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 300 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 835 km (450 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 51 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Sun June 17

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) is expected to turn northward for the next 12 hours and will recurve NNE to NE-ward between 12 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of GUCHOL will moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late Monday afternoon and will be passing close to Okinawa Monday evening. On Wednesday morning, GUCHOL will be just along the Southern Coast of Honshu, passing close to the south of Metropolitan Tokyo.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 240 km/hr (130 knots) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations on its strength will be expected until it starts to weaken on Tuesday as GUCHOL starts transitioning into an Extratropical Cyclone.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 285 kilometers (155 nautical miles. GUCHOL is now a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 835 kilometers (450 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its Super Typhoon strength...starts recurving towards the NNE, farther away from the Philippine Sea as it exits the PAR...about 278 km South of Okinawa, Japan [2PM JUN 18: 24.0N 127.8E @ 240kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: No longer a Super Typhoon, weakens rapidly into a Category 1 Typhoon...already outside the P.A.R., approaching the Southern Coast of Japan...about 300 km South of Kochi, Japan [2PM JUN 19: 30.8N 133.5E @ 130kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) after passing close to the south of Metropolitan Tokyo (about 278 km ENE of Tokyo, Japan)...becoming Extratropical [2PM JUN 20: 36.3N 142.7E @ 100kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

SYMMETRICAL EYE - over water (Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Philippine Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 300 mm (high) along areas near the center of GUCHOL (BUTCHOY). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA), a new system located near the east coast of Hainan Island remained almost stationary. Its developing center was located about 980 km WNW of Laoag City (18.7N 111.3E)...maximum sustained winds of 30 kph. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential remains at MEDIUM (50%).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: WESTERN VISAYAS including ROMBLON and BORACAY; WESTERN LUZON including METRO MANILA and SUBIC. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for STY GUCHOL (BUTCHOY)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 4 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: GUCHOL's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on STY GUCHOL (BUTCHOY)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm