Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS GUCHOL [BUTCHOY]

for Tuesday, 19 June 2012 [6:54 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday June 15 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web and email updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on GUCHOL (BUTCHOY).

GUCHOL MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TROPICAL STORM GUCHOL [BUTCHOY/05W/1204]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 026
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Tue 19 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #034/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) downgraded to Tropical Storm as it starts making landfall along the coast of Southern Honshu near Tanabe, Japan...may become Extratropical later tonight.

Residents and visitors along Japan should closely monitor the progress of GUCHOL (BUTCHOY).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue June 19 2012
Location of Center: 33.8� N Lat 136.1� E Lon
Distance 1: 66 km East of Tanabe, Japan
Distance 2: 94 km ESE of Wakayama, Japan
Distance 3: 172 km SSW of Nagoya, Japan
Distance 4: 158 km SSE of Kyoto, Japan
Distance 5: 391 km WSW of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: ENE @ 68 kph (37 kts)
Towards: Honshu
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 100 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 835 km (450 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 33 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3 PM JST Tue June 19

1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) is expected to continue moving rapidly northeast to north-northeastward for the next 12 to 24 hours. On the forecast track, the core of GUCHOL will make landfall over Southern Honshu early tonight.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. It will continue to decay and lose tropical characteristics as it becomes Extratropical early Wednesday morning.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 335 kilometers (180 nautical miles) from the center. GUCHOL is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 835 kilometers (450 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes Extratropical as it moves across Hokkaido, Japan [2PM JUN 20: 41.4N 142.7E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (Northwest Pacific Ocean), expected to reach Southern Coast of Honshu later tonight. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - affecting Tanabe Area of Southern Honshu. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Eastern Kyushu, Shikoku and Rest of Honshu. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the rest of Japan. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 51 to 100 mm (medium to high) along areas near the center of Guchol (Butchoy). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Kyushu, Shikoku and Honshu. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along other beach-front areas of Japan. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 45 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY GUCHOL (BUTCHOY)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1 Day Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: GUCHOL's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS GUCHOL (BUTCHOY)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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