Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS DOKSURI [DINDO]

for Friday, 29 June 2012 [1:19 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday June 27 2012):

Currently issuing irregular 6-hrly web, email, SMS, Twitter & iTyphoon app updates on DOKSURI.

DOKSURI MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 70 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TROPICAL STORM DOKSURI [DINDO/07W/1206]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Fri 29 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #011/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

DOKSURI (DINDO) has regained Tropical Storm status after crossing the Balintang Channel last night...now accelerating West to WNW towards Southern China. This system has already left the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and is currently over the West Philippine Sea.

DOKSURI (DINDO) will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Western Luzon and Western Visayas incl. Palawan. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along these areas today.

Residents and visitors along Luzon and Southern China should closely monitor the progress on Doksuri (Dindo).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri June 29 2012
Location of Center: 19.9� N Lat 116.3� E Lon
Distance 1: 336 km SE of Hong Kong
Distance 2: 379 km SE of Macau
Distance 3: 391 km SSW of Shantou, China
Distance 4: 490 km NW of Laoag City
Distance 5: 598 km WSW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 37 kph (20 kts)
Towards: Guangdong, China
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 400 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 815 km (440 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 21 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Fri June 29

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

DOKSURI (DINDO) is expected to resume moving west-northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Doksuri will make landfall along the coast of Guangdong Province just west of Hong Kong on Saturday, and will completely dissipate near the Vietnam-China Border on Sunday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength will be expected as the system approaches the coast of Southern China. DOKSURI will start losing strength once it moves in land Saturday through Sunday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 140 kilometers (75 nautical miles) from the center. DOKSURI is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 815 kilometers (440 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY MORNING: Reaches its peak wind intensity as the system makes landfall over Southern China [8AM JUN 30: 21.5N 111.7E @ 100kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Just an area of low pressure as it dissipates near the China-Vietnam Border [8AM JUL 01: 23.3N 107.1E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not affecting any land areas...but expected to reach Southern China later this afternoon or evening. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 400 mm (very high) along areas near the center of Doksuri (Dindo). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Southern China. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Western Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

Tropical Disturbance 96W (LPA) developing over the Caroline Islands, hundreds of kilometers to the SSW of Guam. This new disturbance may become a Tropical Depression within the next 12 to 24 hours. Its developing center was located about 992 km SE of Palau or 1,835 km SE of Mindanao (3.7N 142.7E)...maximum sustained winds of 35 kph, moving WNW @ 07 kph towards Western Micronesia. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential is HIGH (>50%).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS DOKSURI (DINDO)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0712.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 2 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: DOKSULI's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS DOKSURI (DINDO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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