Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon GUCHOL [BUTCHOY]

for Tuesday, 19 June 2012 [7:55 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday June 15 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web and email updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on GUCHOL (BUTCHOY).

GUCHOL MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON GUCHOL [BUTCHOY/05W/1204]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 024
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Tue 19 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #032/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

Typhoon GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) continues to weaken as it moves away from Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands...becoming Extratropical. This system will make landfall over the main Japanese islands of Shikoku and Honshu this evening.

Typhoon GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across the western sections of Northern and Central Luzon today. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected. The seas along the coastal areas along the West Philippine and Visayan Sea will be moderate to rough & dangerous.

Residents and visitors along Japan should closely monitor the progress of GUCHOL (BUTCHOY).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue June 19 2012
Location of Eye: 28.4� N Lat 131.2� E Lon
Distance 1: 139 km East of Naje Is.
Distance 2: 396 km NE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 360 km SSE of Kagoshima, Japan
Distance 4: 611 km SSW of Kochi, Japan
Distance 5: 712 km SW of Tanabe, Japan
Distance 6: 748 km SW of Wakayama, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (110 kts)
Present Movement: NE @ 44 kph (24 kts)
Towards: Shikoku-Honshu Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 100 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 780 km (420 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 41 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3 AM JST Tue June 19

1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) is expected to continue moving rapidly northeast to north-northeastward for the next 24 to 36 hours. On the forecast track, the core of GUCHOL will make landfall over Shikoku and Honshu later tonigh.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 165 km/hr (90 knots) with higher gusts. It will continue to decay and lose tropical characteristics as it becomes Extratropical on Wednesday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 315 kilometers (170 nautical miles. GUCHOL is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 780 kilometers (420 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Becoming Extratropical as it makes landfall and traverse Honshu, Japan...accelerating very rapidly NE-ward [2PM JUN 19: 32.7N 133.7E @ 130kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

EYE - over water (Northwest Pacific Ocean), expected to reach Shikoku's coast later tonight. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea), expected to reach Shikoku, Japan later this afternoon. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas...expected to reach Eastern Kyushu and Shikoku this morning. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Ryukyus, Kyushu, Shikoku and Western Honshu. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 51 to 100 mm (medium to high) along areas near the center of Guchol (Butchoy). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Kyuhsu, Shikoku and Honshu. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along other beach-front areas of Japan. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 45 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY GUCHOL (BUTCHOY)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 1 Day Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: GUCHOL's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY GUCHOL (BUTCHOY)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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