Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS GUCHOL [05W]

for Thursday, 14 June 2012 [6:16 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday June 11 2012):

Now issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on GUCHOL (05W).

GUCHOL MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 80 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TROPICAL STORM GUCHOL [05W/1204]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 009
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Thu 14 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #012/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm GUCHOL (05W) rapidly accelerating WNW farther away from Yap...will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) today.

GUCHOL (05W) is forecast to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) Mindanao beginning Friday and across the whole Philippine Islands on Saturday or Sunday. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West Philippine and Visayan Sea will become moderate to rough.

Residents and visitors along the East Coast of the Philippines should closely monitor the progress of GUCHOL (05W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu June 14 2012
Location of Center: 11.0º N Lat 135.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 87 km East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 302 km NW of Yap, FSM
Distance 3: 446 km NNE of Koror, Palau
Distance 4: 1,134 km ENE of Surigao City
Distance 5: 1,136 km ESE of Borongan City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 31 kph (17 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 450 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 295 km (160 nm) [Small]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Thu June 14

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

GUCHOL is expected to continue moving generally WNW for the next 48 hours, before turning slightly NW-ward by 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of GUCHOL will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) today and move across the Philippine Sea through Sunday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 95 km/hr (50 knots) with higher gusts. GUCHOL will continue gaining strength and will become a Typhoon (TY) later today or early Friday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 85 kilometers (45 nautical miles) from the center. GUCHOL is a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 295 kilometers (160 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Upgraded to typhoon intensity...moving WNW to NW-ward across the Philippine Sea [2AM JUN 15: 12.5N 132.0E @ 120kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Still intensifying...with a turn more to the NW...about 472 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes [2AM JUN 16: 14.8N 128.4E @ 140kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Reaches Category 2 strength...turns NNW-ward sparing Luzon...about 446 km East of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan [2AM JUN 17: 17.9N 125.9E @ 160kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not yet affecting any land areas...possible "Eye" forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (95-117 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...no longer affecting Yap & Ulithi. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the rest of Western Micronesia incl. Palau. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 450 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of GUCHOL (05W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Yap, Ulithi, Palau and other nearby islands of Micronesia. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern Philippines. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS GUCHOL (05W)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: GUCHOL's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS GUCHOL (05W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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