Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon MAWAR [AMBO]

for Tuesday, 05 June 2012 [12:03 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday June 02 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MAWAR (AMBO).

MAWAR MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON MAWAR [AMBO/04W/1203]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 013
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Tue 05 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #018/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

Typhoon MAWAR (AMBO) decaying as it weakens to Category 1...rapidly moving northeastward away from Okinawa and Ryukyus.

MAWAR (AMBO) will slightly enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Palawan. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains & squalls will be expected. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West Philippine and Visayan Sea will be rough & dangerous.

Sailors, Mariners and Sea Navigators near its path should closely monitor the progress of MAWAR (AMBO).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Tue June 05 2012
Location of Eye: 26.4º N Lat 131.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 276 km SSE of Naje Is.
Distance 2: 329 km East of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 714 km ENE of Ishigaki Jima
Distance 4: 1,133 km NE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 5: 1,136 km NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 150 kph (80 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph (100 kts)
Present Movement: NE @ 33 kph (18 kts)
Towards: NW Pacific Ocean
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 760 km (410 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 32 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Tue June 05

36-HOUR FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

MAWAR is expected to continue moving ENE-ward for the next 24 to 36 hours. On the forecast track, the core of MAWAR will pass well to the south of Honshu, Japan on Wednesday and to the south of Kuril Islands Thursday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 150 km/hr (80 knots) with higher gusts. MAWAR will continue to decay as it moves into cooler sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and unfavorable upper-level environment of the NW Pacific Ocean. This system will become an Extratropical Cyclone late Wednesday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 45 kilometers (25 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 240 kilometers (130 nautical miles). MAWAR is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 760 kilometers (410 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 36-hour forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS)...accelerating ENE-ward across the open seas to the south of Honshu, Japan [8AM JUN 06: 30.6N 139.4E @ 110kph].
WEDNESDAY EVENING: Attains Extratropical status while moving ENE to the south of the Kuril Islands [8PM JUN 06: 34.1N 145.7E @ 95kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

DECAYING CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (Northwest Pacific Ocean). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
DECAYING EYEWALL - over water (Northwest Pacific Ocean). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Northwest Pacific Ocean)...no longer affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of MAWAR (AMBO). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Southern Japan. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY MAWAR (AMBO)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0412.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 36 Hours Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: MAWAR's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY MAWAR (AMBO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm