Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS MAWAR [AMBO]

for Saturday, 02 June 2012 [7:31 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday June 02 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MAWAR (AMBO).

MAWAR MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 70 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TROPICAL STORM MAWAR [AMBO/04W/1203]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sat 02 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #005/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm MAWAR (AMBO) intensifying as it moves slowly NNW, near the east coast of Northern Luzon. Its outer rainbands spreading across the eastern sections of Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora & Northern Quezon.

MAWAR (AMBO) will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Bicol Region, Southern Luzon, Metro Manila, Palawan and Western Visayas. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains will be expected.

Residents and visitors along the east coast of Luzon should closely monitor the progress of MAWAR (AMBO).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sat June 02 2012
Location of Center: 16.7º N Lat 124.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 283 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 2: 294 km NNE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 313 km ESE of Ilagan City
Distance 4: 320 km East of Cauayan City
Distance 5: 334 km ESE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 6: 346 km ENE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 7: 348 km NNE of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 8: 349 km North of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 9: 370 km SE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 10: 380 km NNE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 11: 450 km NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: North Philippine Sea
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 450 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Tue June 02

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

MAWAR is expected to start turning northward for the next 12 to 24 hours, before making a sharp recurvature towards the NE through 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of MAWAR will pass well to the south of Okinawa, Japan by early Tuesday morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. MAWAR is expected to continue gaining strength and will become a typhoon later tonight or early Sunday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 75 kilometers (40 nautical miles) from the center. MAWAR is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 370 kilometers (200 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Upgraded to a Typhoon while to the east of Northern Cagayan [2AM JUN 03: 18.0N 124.4E @ 120kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Attains Category 2 status as it recurves NNE to NE-ward across the open waters of the North Philippine Sea [2AM JUN 04: 20.4N 125.9E @ 160kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Starts losing strength while moving into unfavorable atmospheric conditions...passing well to the south of Okinawa [2AM JUN 05: 23.4N 128.5E @ 130kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the East Coast of Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora & Quezon Provinces including Polillo Island. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 450 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of MAWAR (AMBO). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern Camarines Provines, Catanduanes, Polillo Is., Northern Quezon, Aurora & Isabela. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TS MAWAR (AMBO)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0412.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: MAWAR's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS MAWAR (AMBO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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