Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon GUCHOL [BUTCHOY]

for Friday, 15 June 2012 [12:26 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday June 14 2012):

Now issuing 6-hrly web, email, SMS (except SMART/TNT - due to technical adjustments) & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on GUCHOL (BUTCHOY).

GUCHOL MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON GUCHOL [BUTCHOY/05W/1204]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 013
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Fri 15 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #017/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) has slowed down further as it strengthens to Category 2 Typhoon while over the Philippine Sea. The typhoon is anticipated to make a sharp turn towards the northwest or north-northwest within the next 06 to 24 hours. Outermost Rainbands now spreading across the eastern coast of Northeastern Mindanao particularly Siargao Islands.

GUCHOL (BUTCHOY) is forecast to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) Western Mindanao beginning today and across the whole Philippine Islands on Saturday through Monday. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected. The seas along the coastal areas along the West Philippine and Visayan Sea will become moderate to rough & dangerous.

Residents and visitors along the East Coast of the Philippines should closely monitor the progress of GUCHOL (BUTCHOY).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Fri June 15 2012
Location of Eye: 10.3º N Lat 131.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 626 km ENE of Surigao City
Distance 2: 649 km ESE of Borongan City
Distance 3: 686 km ESE of Tacloban City
Distance 4: 760 km ESE of Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 5: 835 km SE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 6: 839 km SE of Sorsogon City
Distance 7: 874 km SE of Legazpi City
Distance 8: 894 km SE of Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 9: 916 km SE of Iriga City
Distance 10: 945 km SE of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 160 kph (85 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 195 kph (105 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 480 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 27 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PhT Fri June 15

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

GUCHOL is expected to decrease on its westerly track w/in the next 6 to 12 hours and will turn sharply to the NW to NNW between 24 to 48 hours. It will then move almost northerly by 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of GUCHOL will just move across the Philippine Sea, passing more or less 400 km to the east of the Philippines through Monday - without hitting any land areas.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 160 km/hr (80 knots) with higher gusts. GUCHOL will continue gaining strength and will become a Category 3 Typhoon (TY) on Saturday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 160 kilometers (85 nautical miles. GUCHOL is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 370 kilometers (200 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY MORNING: Turns sharply north-northwestward while still over the Philippine Sea...almost a Category 3 Typhoon...about 510 km East of Catarman, Northern Samar [8AM JUN 16: 12.4N 129.3E @ 175kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Maintains its north-northwest track while to the east of Northern Luzon...reaches Category 3 status...about 512 km East of Casiguran, Aurora [8AM JUN 17: 16.3N 126.9E @ 195kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Maintains its Category 3 strength...starts to move poleward (north) sparing Extreme Northern Luzon...about 417 km East of Basco, Batanes [8AM JUN 18: 20.5N 126.0E @ 195kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CLOUD-FILLED/SMALL EYE - over water (Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Philippine Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Palau & the Eastern Coastal areas of Northeastern Mindanao incl. Siargao Islands. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 480 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of GUCHOL (BUTCHOY). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TY GUCHOL (BUTCHOY)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0512.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: GUCHOL's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY GUCHOL (BUTCHOY)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm