Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon MAWAR [AMBO]

for Monday, 04 June 2012 [7:39 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday June 02 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MAWAR (AMBO).

MAWAR MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 155 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TYPHOON MAWAR [AMBO/04W/1203]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 011
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Mon 04 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #015/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

Typhoon MAWAR (AMBO) weakens to Category 2 as it continued moving NNE closer to the Southern Islands of Japan...will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow morning.

MAWAR (AMBO) will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Palawan and the western sections of Luzon and Visayas including Mindoro. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains & squalls will be expected. The seas along the coastal areas facing the West Philippine and Visayan Sea will be rough & dangerous.

Residents and visitors along Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands should closely monitor the progress of MAWAR (AMBO).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Mon June 04 2012
Location of Eye: 23.3º N Lat 127.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 324 km South of Naha, Okinawa
Distance 2: 347 km South of Kadena Airbase
Distance 3: 352 km ESE of Ishigaki Jima
Distance 4: 358 km SSW of Okinawa City
Distance 5: 638 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 6: 640 km ENE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 7: 756 km NE of Calayan Is.
Distance 8: 804 km NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 9: 868 km NE of Tuguegarao City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 175 kph (95 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 215 kph (115 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyu Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 880 km (475 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 34 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Mon June 04

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

MAWAR is expected to move NE for the next 24 hours, before turning ENE-ward during the next 48 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of MAWAR will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and pass to the southeast of Okinawa, Japan on Tuesday morning. By Wednesday and Thursday, MAWAR will be passing well to the south of Honshu, Japan and Kuril Islands.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 175 km/hr (95 knots) with higher gusts. MAWAR is now on its decaying stages as the system moves into cooler sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and unfavorable upper-level environs. This system will become an Extratropical Cyclone on Thursday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers (35 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 285 kilometers (155 nautical miles). MAWAR is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 880 kilometers (475 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to Category 1 while outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...accelerating NE away from Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands [2PM JUN 05: 26.6N 131.4E @ 150kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS)...passing well to the south of Honshu, Japan...becoming Extratropical [2PM JUN 06: 31.4N 139.8E @ 110kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Passing to the south of the Kuril Islands or over the cool waters of the North Pacific Ocean...becomes Extratropical [2PM JUN 07: 37.0N 150.5E @ 75kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of MAWAR (AMBO). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Extreme Northern Luzon and Southern Japan. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY MAWAR (AMBO)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0412.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: MAWAR's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY MAWAR (AMBO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm