Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS DOKSURI [DINDO]

for Thursday, 28 June 2012 [9:50 AM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday June 27 2012):

Currently issuing intermittent 6-hrly web, email, SMS, Twitter & iTyphoon app updates on DOKSURI.

DOKSURI MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TROPICAL STORM DOKSURI [DINDO/07W/1206]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Thu 28 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #006/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

Tropical Storm DOKSURI (DINDO) remains disorganized with most of its convective rainbands located over Luzon...Occasional to widespread rains occurring in many parts of the island. This system is expected to pass over the Balintang Channel today.

DOKSURI (DINDO) will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Western Luzon and Western Visayas incl. Palawan. Breezy to windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ occasional to widespread rains, thunderstorms & squalls will be expected along these areas today.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the progress on Doksuri (Dindo).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Thu June 28 2012
Location of Center: 18.6� N Lat 124.9� E Lon
Distance 1: 295 km East of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 2: 356 km ENE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 3: 366 km ESE of Calayan Island
Distance 4: 370 km SE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 338 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 26 kph (14 kts)
Towards: Calayan-Batanes Area
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 250 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PhT Thu June 28

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

DOKSURI (DINDO) is expected to resume moving west-northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Doksuri will pass near the Northeastern Coast of Cagayan between 2-5 PM today and traverse the Balintang Channel, before exiting into West Philippine Sea. The storm will pass over Hong Kong Harbour on Saturday afternoon as a decaying system and will completely dissipate over land, along Guangdong Province by early Sunday morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. An increase in strength will be expected as the system moves across Balintang Channel and into the West Philippine Sea today until Friday. DOKSURI will start losing strength prior in making landfall over Guangdong Province, Southern China on Saturday.

DOKSURI is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 890 kilometers (480 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifying as the system moves away from the Balintang Channel...about 119 km WNW of Calayan Island [2AM JUN 29: 19.8N 120.5E @ 85kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Reaches its peak strength as the system moves across the West Philippine Sea (aka. South China Sea)...heading towards Hong Kong [2AM JUN 30: 21.5N 116.0E @ 95kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Rapidly dissipating over Guangdong Province, China...no longer a Tropical Cyclone...just WNW of Hong Kong [2AM JUL 01: 23.3N 112.2E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Luzon incl. Metro Manila. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 250 mm (high) along areas near the center of Doksuri (Dindo). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern Luzon. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Luzon and Visayas. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TS DOKSURI (DINDO)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0712.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: DOKSULI's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT WUNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS DOKSURI (DINDO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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