Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS MAWAR [AMBO]

for Friday, 01 June 2012 [7:45 PM PhT]

Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday June 01 2012):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & iTyphoon app updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MAWAR (AMBO).

MAWAR MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks

TROPICAL STORM MAWAR [AMBO/04W/1203]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Fri 01 June 2012
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #003/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2012)

04W (AMBO) has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm, internationally known as MAWAR - a Malaysian word for Rose. Its outer rainbands continues to spread across the Bicol Region & Quezon Provinces.

MAWAR (AMBO) will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) across Southern Luzon, Metro Manila, Palawan and Visayas this weekend. Windy conditions & cloudy skies w/ passing occasional to widespread rains will be expected.

Residents and visitors along the east coast of Luzon should closely monitor the progress of MAWAR (AMBO).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Fri June 01 2012
Location of Center: 15.4º N Lat 125.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 187 km NNE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 233 km NNE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 240 km NE of Gota, Caramoan
Distance 4: 265 km NE of Siruma, CamSur
Distance 5: 296 km NE of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 6: 302 km NE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 7: 308 km NNE of Legazpi City
Distance 8: 354 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 9: 392 km ENE of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 10: 399 km ESE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 11: 460 km ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: North Philippine Sea
NOAA 24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 480 mm (VHigh)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: TS
Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Mon June 01

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

MAWAR is expected to continue moving NNW-ward for the next 12 hours before making a sharp recurvature towards the NE within 36 hours. The NE track will continue through 72 hours, across the open waters of the North Philippine Sea.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. MAWAR is expected to continue gaining strength and will become a well-develop typhoon on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center. MAWAR is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 370 kilometers (200 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Near-typhoon strength as it recurves NNE...passing far to the east of Cagayan [2PM JUN 02: 17.5N 124.6E @ 100kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Still intensifying as it accelerates further northeastward towards the open waters of the North Philippine Sea [2PM JUN 03: 19.6N 125.8E @ 140kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Reaches Category 2 strength while continuing its journey towards the NE, away from the Philippines...passing far to the south of Okinawa [2PM JUN 04: 22.3N 128.4E @ 160kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the Bicol Region particularly Caramoan Peninsula and Catanduanes Island, Isabela, Aurora & Quezon Provinces. Cloudy/Rainy Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 480 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of MAWAR (AMBO). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern Camarines Provines, Catanduanes, Polillo Is., Northern Quezon, Aurora & Isabela. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of the Marianas. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

Kindly visit: The official PAGASA Website to view the Signals hoisted

External Links for TS MAWAR (AMBO)

PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0412.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
NASA TRMM Page: MAWAR's Rainrate Archives (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

_____________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS MAWAR (AMBO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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