for Saturday, 17 August 2013 [7:26 PM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (MARING) UPDATE NUMBER 001
Issued: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Saturday 17 August 2013
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sunday 18 August 2013
The strong disturbance (LPA) over the North Philippine Sea, northeast of Batanes has become Tropical Depression 12W (MARING)...moving slowly east-southeast towards the open sea.
This system together with Tropical Depression (TD) 13W will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) -- bringing cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across the western sections of the Philippines...becoming more frequent along Western Luzon including Metro Manila today and Sunday. Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes.
Meanwhile, Tropical Depression 13W has been tracking westward during the past 6 hours while passing just north of Okinawa. Latest dynamic forecast models show the system having a Fujiwhara Effect [also known as Direct Cyclone Interaction (DCI)] with TD 12 (MARING) and either one of them should merge to the much stronger one, or separate from each other. Its center was located about 120 km northeast of Okinawa, Japan (27.1N Lat 128.8E Lon)...with maximum winds of 45 km/hr near the center...moving West @ 17 kph.
Residents and visitors along Taiwan and the islands of Okinawa-Ryukyu-Miyako-Yaeyama-Batanes Islands should closely monitor the development of 12W (Maring).
Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 5:00 pm today, the center of TD 12W (Maring) was located over the North Philippine Sea...about 365 km east of Basco, Batanes or 720 km south-southeast of Okinawa, Japan...currently moving east-southeast with a decreased forward speed of 11 km/hr.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 55 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of 12W (Maring) is estimated to be extreme (400 mm).
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TD 12W (Maring) is expected to move slowly eastward for the next 24 hours...turning north by 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of 12W (Maring) will remain over the open waters of the North Philippine Sea, just to the south of Okinawa thru Tuesday afternoon as the system interacts with TD 13W located to the west of Okinawa.
12W (Maring) is expected to gradually intensify through the next 24 to 48 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows 12W (Maring) becoming a Tropical Storm (TS) on Sunday...and could reach its sustained winds of 95 km/hr by Monday afternoon.
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a TS as it tracks eastward across the North Philippine Sea...about 675 km east of Basco, Batanes [5PM AUGUST 18: 20.7N 128.5E @ 65kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to gain strength...turns northward over the sea...about 500 km south-southeast of Okinawa, Japan [5PM AUGUST 19: 22.3N 129.5E @ 85kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Still gaining strength...completes its counter-clockwise turn...moving west-northwest towards Miyako and Yaeyama Islands...about 335 km south of Okinawa, Japan [5PM AUGUST 20: 23.5N 127.9E @ 95kph].
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: North Philippine Sea. (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas to the south, west near the center of 12W (Maring).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat Aug 17, 2013
Class/Name: TD 12W (Maring)
Location of Center: 20.4º N Lat 125.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 365 km E of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 390 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 3: 475 km SSE of Ishigakijima
Distance 4: 720 km SSE of Okinawa, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph
Present Movement: ESE @ 11 kph
Towards: North Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [400 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
__________________________________________________________________________________________________ >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TD 12W (MARING)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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1 comment:
Hope I can fly in on the 21st, my daughter has made a calendar and is marking the days until daddy arrives ...
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