for Monday, 19 August 2013 [6:25 PM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM TRAMI (MARING) UPDATE NUMBER 007
Issued: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Monday 19 August 2013
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Tuesday 20 August 2013
Tropical Storm TRAMI (MARING) has started moving north-northeast slowly during the past 6 hours...gaining strength over the warm waters of the North Philippine Sea.
This storm will continue to induce the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing cloudy and windy conditions with "on-and-off" slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains across the western sections of the Philippines...becoming more frequent with moderate-to-heavy monsoon rains along MiMaRoPa, the National Capital Region (Metro Manila), Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, and CaLaBaRZon tonight through Wednesday. Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes.
Meanwhile, Typhoon PEWA (01C) upgraded from Tropical Storm (TS) has maintained its northwesterly movement across the open seas of the Western Pacific Ocean. Latest dynamic forecast models continues to show the system moving generally northwestward and may affect Wake Island on Wednesday. Its center was located about 1,285 km southeast of Wake Island or 5,715 km east of the Philippines (14.3N Lat 177.5E Lon)...with maximum winds of 120 km/hr near the center...moving NW @ 15 kph towards Wake Island Area. This storm is too far away to affect any part of the Philippines.
Residents and visitors along Taiwan and the islands of Okinawa-Ryukyu-Miyako-Yaeyama-Ishigaki-Batanes Islands should closely monitor the development of Trami (Maring).
Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 5:00 pm today, the center of TS Trami (Maring) was located over the North Philippine Sea...about 650 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes or 715 km south of Okinawa, Japan...currently moving north-northeast with a slow forward speed of 07 km/hr.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 95 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 110 kilometers from the center. Trami (Maring) is a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 280 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Trami (Maring) is estimated to be extreme (450 mm).
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TS Trami (Maring) is expected to move north to north-northwest during the next 12 to 24 hours...and will turn west-northwest by 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Trami (Maring) will remain over the warm open waters of the North Philippine Sea, just to the south of Okinawa on Tuesday afternoon...and will move across the Yaeyama-Ishigakijima-Miyako Islands on Wednesday morning. By Wednesday afternoon, the potential Typhoon will be approaching the northern coast of Taiwan.
Trami (Maring) is expected to continue gaining strength within the next 24 to 48 hours...and could become a Typhoon on Tuesday afternoon. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows Trami (Maring) reaching its peak winds of 140 km/hr by Wednesday afternoon.
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a minimal Typhoon...begins its westerly turn towards the northern shores of Taiwan...about 405 km south-southwest of Okinawa, Japan [5PM AUG 20: 22.9N 127.2E @ 120kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Reaches its peak intensity as it approaches the northern shores of Taiwan...about 120 km east of Taipei, Taiwan [5PM AUG 21: 25.1N 122.8E @ 140kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Over Fujian Province...dissipating over land...weakens to a Tropical Storm (TS)...about 165 km west-southwest of Fuzhou, China [5PM AUG 22: 25.8N 117.7E @ 100kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: North Philippine Sea.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: North Philippine Sea (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 450 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas to the south, west and near the center of Trami (Maring).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon Aug 19, 2013
Class/Name: TS Trami (Maring)
Location of Center: 20.1º N Lat 128.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 640 km SE of Ishigakijima
Distance 2: 655 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 3: 650 km ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 670 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 5: 715 km S of Okinawa, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph
Present Movement: NNE @ 07 kph
Towards: North Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [450 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 280 km [Small]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 ft
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS TRAMI (MARING)...go visit our website @:
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