Tuesday, August 27, 2013

TS KONG-REY (NANDO) Update #003


for Tuesday, 27 August 2013 [1:45 PM PhT]


Issued: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Tuesday 27 August 2013
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tuesday 27 August 2013

Tropical Storm KONG-REY (NANDO) has slightly accelerated northward with no change in strength...passing well to the east of Calayan Island. Its rainbands continues to affect Northern Luzon.

This storm will slightly induce the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing cloudy and breezy conditions with passing slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains across the Western Luzon...becoming more frequent along Western Zambales, Bataan, Lubang Island, Occidental Mindoro, Calamian Group of Islands, Cavite, Western Batangas and Metro Manila today until Wednesday. The threat of Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions

Residents and visitors along Taiwan, Yaeyama-Miyako Islands, and Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands should closely monitor the development of Kong-Rey (Nando).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 11:00 am today, the center of TS Kong-Rey (Nando) was located over the North Philippine Sea...about 185 km east-northeast of Santa Ana, Cagayan or 235 km southeast of Basco, Batanes...currently moving northward with an increased forward speed of 22 km/hr towards Batanes-Taiwan Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain at 65 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. . Kong-Rey (Nando) remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 500 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Kong-Rey (Nando) is estimated to be extreme (450 mm).


TS Kong-Rey (Nando) is expected to move north-northwest to north during the next 24 hours, with a north to north-northeasterly turn through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Kong-Rey (Nando) will be passing just to the east of Batanes Islands by early Wednesday morning...and will move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) or over the Yaeyama Island Chain by Thursday morning.

TS Kong-Rey (Nando) will continue to intensify throughout the forecast period. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows Kong-Rey (Nando) reaching its highest sustained winds of 100 km/hr by Thursday morning.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Passing just to the northeast of Batanes Islands...continues to intensify...about 165 km northeast of Basco, Batanes [11AM AUG 28: 21.5N 123.2E @ 85kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Intensifies to near-Typhoon strength while passing over the Yaeyama Island Chain...exits the PAR...about 80 km northwest of Ishigakijima [11AM AUG 29: 25.0N 123.6E @ 100kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Accelerating across the East China Sea...starts to weaken...about 300 km northwest of Okinawa, Japan [11AM AUG 30: 28.6N 125.9E @ 95kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-85 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Coastal areas of Northern Cagayan.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Rest of Northern Luzon including Calayan and Babuyan Islands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 450 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas to the south, west and near the center of Kong-Rey (Nando).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Tue Aug 27, 2013
Class/Name: TS Kong-Rey (Nando)
Location of Center: 19.2º N Lat 123.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 185 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 2: 235 km SE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 3: 240 km E of Calayan Island
Distance 4: 240 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 5: 275 km SE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 6: 285 km NE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 7: 595 km NNE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph
Present Movement: North @ 22 kph
Towards: Batanes-Taiwan Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [450 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 500 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 feet
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)



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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:


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