for Thursday, 01 August 2013 [10:17 AM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM JEBI (JOLINA) UPDATE NUMBER 005
Issued: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday 02 August 2013
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday 02 August 2013
Tropical Storm JEBI (JOLINA) has gathered strength while over the warm waters of the South China Sea...threat to Hainan Island increases.
This storm will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) bringing cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam. Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along mountain slopes.
Residents and visitors along Hainan Island, Southern China and Northern Vietnam should closely monitor the development of Jebi (Jolina).
Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 6:00 am today, the center of TS Jebi (Jolina) was located over the South China Sea...about 325 km southeast of Qionghai, Hainan Island or 515 km south of Macau, China...currently moving north-northwes with a forward speed of 15 km/hr in the general direction of Hainan Island.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 85 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 120 kilometers from the center. Jebi (Jolina) is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 740 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Jebi (Jolina) is estimated to be extreme (400 mm).
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TS Jebi (Jolina) is expected to move northwest to west-northwest for the next 24 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Jebi (Jolina) will cross Hainan Island later tonight...emerging over the Gulf of Tonkin on Saturday morning...and making landfall over Northern Vietnam on Saturday evening. By Sunday morning, Jebi (Jolina) will be over the western part of Northern Vietnam.
Jebi (Jolina) will continue to intensify within the next 12 hours as it moves towards Hainan Island. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows the storm reaching its peak sustained winds of 95 km/hr later this afternoon...weakening to 85 km/hr on Saturday morning...and just a minimal TS (65 kph) on Sunday morning.
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:
SATURDAY MORNING: Just along the northwestern coast of Hainan Island or over the Gulf of Tonkin...about 85 km northwest of Danzhou, Hainan Island [6AM AUGUST 03: 20.0N 109.0E @ 85kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Dissipating over Northern Vietnam...approaching the Vietnam-Laos Border...about 255 km west-northwest of Hanoi, Northern Vietnam [6AM AUGUST 04: 21.6N 103.4E @ 65kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-85 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Western-mid portion of the South China Sea.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-55 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Hainan Island, the Eastern Coast of Vietnam, West Philippine and South China Seas. (click here to know more about Rainbands)
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas to the south, west and near the center of Jebi (Jolina).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Fri Aug 02, 2013
Class/Name: TS Jebi (Jolina)
Location of Center: 17.6º N Lat 113.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 325 km SE of Qionghai, Hainan Is.
Distance 2: 385 km ESE of Sanya, Hainan Is.
Distance 3: 405 km SE of Haikou, Hainan Is.
Distance 4: 425 km SE of Danzhou, Hainan Is.
Distance 5: 495 km SSE of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 6: 515 km S of Macau
Distance 7: 535 km SSW of Hong Kong
Distance 8: 775 km W of Vigan City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph
Present Movement: NNW @ 15 kph
Towards: Hainan Island
CPA [ETA] to Hainan Island: Tonight [7-10PM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [400 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 740 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 22 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS JEBI (JOLINA)...go visit our website @:
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