Wednesday, August 21, 2013

Typhoon TRAMI (MARING) Update #011


for Wednesday, 21 August 2013 [8:34 AM PhT]


Issued: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wednesday 21 August 2013
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Wednesday 21 August 2013

TRAMI (MARING) has intensified into a Typhoon as it quickly moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) after passing Miyako Islands early this morning.

This typhoon will continue to induce the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing cloudy and windy conditions with "on-and-off" slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains across the western sections of Luzon and Visayas...becoming more frequent along Occidental Mindoro, the National Capital Region (Metro Manila), Bataan, Zambales, Cordillera Administrative Region, Central Luzon and Ilocos Region today. Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm (TS) PEWA (01C) has maintained its strength while moving rapidly across the open seas of the Western Pacific Ocean. Latest dynamic forecast models continues to show the system moving generally northwestward for the next 2 days. Its center was located about 605 km east-southeast of Wake Island or 5,125 km east-northeast of the Philippines (18.5N Lat 172.3E Lon)...with maximum winds of 85 km/hr near the center...moving NW @ 28 kph. This storm is too far away to affect any part of the Philippines.

Residents and visitors along Taiwan and Southeastern China should closely monitor the development of Trami (Maring).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 5:00 am today, the eye of Typhoon Trami (Maring) was located over the East China Sea...about 355 km east of Taipei, Taiwan or 620 km north-northeast of Basco, Batanes...currently moving northwest with an increased forward speed of 30 km/hr towards Southeastern China.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 120 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 185 kilometers from the center. Trami (Maring) remains a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 720 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Trami (Maring) is estimated to be heavy (300 mm).


Typhoon Trami (Maring) is expected to move west-northwestward during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Trami (Maring) will be passing just to the north of Taiwan later this afternoon...and will make landfall over Fujian Province, just north of Fuzhou City on Thursday morning. By Friday morning, Trami (Maring) will be over the eastern part of Hunan Province as it continues moving over land.

Trami (Maring) is still expected to slightly intensify during the next 12 hours...just before it makes landfall...and will start to weaken rapidly as the system moves over land, across Southeastern China. It will just be a remnant low pressure by Friday morning. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows that Trami (Maring) could reach its highest sustained winds of 130 km/hr later today.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY MORNING: Making landfall over Southeastern China (Fujian Province)...about 65 km north of Fuzhou City, China [5AM AUG 22: 26.7N 119.3E @ 120kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Moving over the eastern part of Hunan Province...just an area of low pressure dissipating over land...about 545 km north of Hong Kong, China [5AM AUG 23: 27.2N 113.9E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - Over East China Sea, just north of Yaeyama Island Group. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Over East China Sea (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Yaeyama and Miyako Islands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Taiwan and Okinawa (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 300 mm (heavy) along areas to the south, west and near the center of Trami (Maring).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern Taiwan and Southeastern China today. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Southern China, Rest of Taiwan, Yaeyama and Miyako Islands, and Extreme Northern Luzon (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed Aug 21, 2013
Class/Name: TY Trami (Maring)
Location of Eye: 25.3º N Lat 125.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 120 km NE of Ishigakijima
Distance 2: 300 km WSW of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 355 km E of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 530 km SE of Wenzhou, China
Distance 5: 590 km ESE of Fuzhou, China
Distance 6: 620 km NNE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 1
Present Movement: NW @ 30 kph
Towards: Yaeyama and Miyako Islands
CPA [ETA] to Fujian Province: Early Monday [3-5AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [300 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 720 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 22 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m)

T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)


CURRENT TRACKING MAP: _____________________________________________________________________________




>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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