for Sunday, 18 August 2013 [6:52 PM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM TRAMI (MARING) UPDATE NUMBER 004
Issued: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sunday 18 August 2013
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Monday 19 August 2013
TRAMI (MARING) becomes a Tropical Storm (TS) as it drifts slowly eastward across the warm waters of the North Philippine Sea...likely to make a counter-clockwise turn towards Northern Taiwan within the next 2 to 3 days.
This storm will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing cloudy and windy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains across the western sections of the Philippines...becoming more frequent along Western Luzon including Metro Manila tonight through Tuesday. Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes.
Meanwhile, the Tropical Cyclone located over the Central Pacific Ocean has crossed the International Dateline this afternoon...and is now over the Western Pacific Basin. Latest dynamic forecast models show Tropical Storm PEWA (01C) moving across the open seas of the Western Pacific Ocean and may affect Wake Island on Wednesday. Its center was located about 1,330 km southeast of Wake Island or 5,545 km east of the Philippines (12.2N Lat 176.6E Lon)...with maximum winds of 100 km/hr near the center...moving WNW @ 22 kph towards Wake Island.
Residents and visitors along Taiwan and the islands of Okinawa-Ryukyu-Miyako-Yaeyama-Batanes Islands should closely monitor the development of Trami (Maring).
Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 5:00 pm today, the center of TS Trami (Maring) was located over the North Philippine Sea...about 625 km east of Basco, Batanes or 665 km south of Okinawa, Japan...currently moving eastward with a decreased forward speed of 09 km/hr.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 65 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Trami (Maring) is a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 335 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Trami (Maring) is estimated to be extreme (550 mm).
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TS Trami (Maring) is expected to move northeastward to northward for the next 24 hours...turning northwest to west-northwest by 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Trami (Maring) will remain over the warm open waters of the North Philippine Sea, just to the south of Okinawa thru Tuesday afternoon as the system undergoes a counter-clockwise turn.
Trami (Maring) is expected to continue gaining strength through the next 24 to 48 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows Trami (Maring) reaching sustained winds of 100 km/hr on Tuesday afternoon.
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to gain strength as it begins its counter-clockwise turn across the North Philippine Sea...about 545 km south-southeast of Okinawa, Japan [5PM AUG 19: 21.8N 129.3E @ 85kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Still gaining strength...completes its counter-clockwise turn...moving west-northwest...approaching Miyako and Yaeyama Islands...about 300 km south-southwest of Okinawa, Japan [5PM AUG 20: 23.9N 127.0E @ 100kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a minimal Typhoon...approaching the northern coast of Taiwan...about 130 km east of Taipei, Taiwan [5PM AUG 21: 25.2N 122.9E @ 120kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-85 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: North Philippine Sea. OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: North Philippine Sea (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 550 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas to the south, west and near the center of Trami (Maring).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sun Aug 18, 2013
Class/Name: TS Trami (Maring)
Location of Center: 20.5º N Lat 128.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 590 km SE of Ishigakijima
Distance 2: 625 km E of Basco, Batanes
Distance 3: 645 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 4: 665 km S of Okinawa, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph
Present Movement: E @ 09 kph
Towards: North Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [550 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 335 km [Small]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
__________________________________________________________________________________________________ >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS TRAMI (MARING)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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