for Monday, 19 August 2013 [12:40 PM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM TRAMI (MARING) UPDATE NUMBER 006
Issued: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Monday 19 August 2013
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Monday 19 August 2013
Tropical Storm TRAMI (MARING) continues to intensify while drifting very slowly over the North Philippine Sea...could threaten Taiwan and the island group of Miyako and Yaeyama beginning Tuesday.
This storm will continue to induce the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing cloudy and windy conditions with "on-and-off" slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains across the western sections of the Philippines...becoming more frequent with moderate-to-heavy monsoon rains along MiMaRoPa, the National Capital Region (Metro Manila) and CaLaBaRZon today through Tuesday. Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm PEWA (01C) has slowed its northwesterly movement as it intensifies over the far Western Pacific Ocean. Latest dynamic forecast models continues to show the system moving across the open seas of the Western Pacific Ocean and may affect Wake Island on Wednesday. Its center was located about 1,380 km southeast of Wake Island or 5,795 km east of the Philippines (13.6N Lat 178.1E Lon)...with maximum winds of 110 km/hr near the center...moving NW @ 11 kph towards Wake Island Area. This storm is too far to affect any part of the Philippines.
Residents and visitors along Taiwan and the islands of Okinawa-Ryukyu-Miyako-Yaeyama-Ishigaki-Batanes Islands should closely monitor the development of Trami (Maring).
Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 11:00 am today, the center of TS Trami (Maring) was located over the North Philippine Sea...about 620 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes or 790 km south of Okinawa, Japan...currently moving southeast with a very slow forward speed of 05 km/hr.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 85 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 95 kilometers from the center. Trami (Maring) is a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 280 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Trami (Maring) is estimated to be extreme (550 mm).
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TS Trami (Maring) is expected to move slowly northward for the next 24 hours...turning northwest to west-northwest by 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Trami (Maring) will remain over the warm open waters of the North Philippine Sea, just to the south of Okinawa on Tuesday morning...and will be in the vicinity of Yaeyama-Ishigakijima-Miyako Islands before noontime Wednesday.
Trami (Maring) is expected to continue gaining strength within the next 24 to 48 hours...and could become a Typhoon on Tuesday evening. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows Trami (Maring) reaching its maximum sustained winds of 130 km/hr on Wednesday morning.
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:
TUESDAY MORNING: Strengthens to near-Typhoon intensity...begins its turn towards Northern Taiwan...about 500 km south of Okinawa, Japan [11AM AUG 20: 22.0N 128.1E @ 110kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Becomes a minimal Typhoon...completes its westerly turn...passing over or very near Yaeyama-Ishigaki-Miyako Islands...about 40 km east-southeast of Ishigakijima [11AM AUG 21: 24.4N 124.6E @ 130kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Reaches its peak wind intensity of 140 kph...makes landfall over Fujian Province (Southeastern China)...about 55 km south of Fuzhou, China [11AM AUG 22: 25.6N 119.4E @ 140kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: North Philippine Sea.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: North Philippine Sea (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 550 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas to the south, west and near the center of Trami (Maring).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Mon Aug 19, 2013
Class/Name: TS Trami (Maring)
Location of Center: 19.4º N Lat 127.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 595 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 2: 620 km ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 3: 645 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 4: 680 km SSE of Ishigakijima
Distance 5: 790 km S of Okinawa, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph
Present Movement: SE @ 05 kph
Towards: North Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [550 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 280 km [Small]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS TRAMI (MARING)...go visit our website @:
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