for Sunday, 11 August 2013 [1:12 PM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON UTOR (LABUYO) UPDATE NUMBER 008
Issued: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Sunday 11 August 2013
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sunday 11 August 2013
Typhoon UTOR (LABUYO) gained more strength as it passes to the north of Catanduanes...now endangers Luzon especially the province of Aurora. Its outer rainbands continues to affect the Bicol Region, Northern Samar and the eastern coast of Luzon including Polillo Island.
This typhoon will enhance the weak Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) bringing cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across Western Visayas. Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes.
Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of Utor (Labuyo).
Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 11:00 am today, the eye of Typhoon Utor (Labuyo) was located over the the Philippine Sea...about 180 km northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or 195 km east-northeast of Caramoan, Camarines Sur...currently moving west-northwest with a decreased forward speed of 22 km/hr in the general direction of Aurora-Quirino Area.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 185 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 215 kilometers. Utor (Labuyo) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Utor (Labuyo) is estimated to be heavy (300 mm).
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Typhoon Utor (Labuyo) is expected to continue moving west-northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Utor (Labuyo) will be passing well to the north of Bicol Region late this afternoon and evening...approaching the eastern shoreline of Aurora by early Monday morning. The cyclone will then make landfall over Aurora between 4-6am Monday - passing very close to the town of Casiguran...and cross Northern Luzon via Quirino-Nueva Vizcaya-Benguet-La Union beginning Monday morning until the afternoon. By Tuesday morning, Utor will be moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) or over the West Philippine Sea on its way towards Southern China.
Utor (Labuyo) is expected to continue gaining strength within the next 12 to 16 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows Utor reaching peak winds of more than 200 km/hr tonight, prior to landfall over Aurora. On Monday evening, the typhoon will weaken after crossing Luzon and will over the West Philippine Sea.
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:
MONDAY MORNING: Over Benguet...weakens...about 45 km north of Baguio City, Benguet [11AM AUGUST 12: 16.8N 120.7E @ 165kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Exits PAR...continues to weaken while over the South China Sea...about 415 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, China [11AM AUGUST 13: 18.8N 115.8E @ 160kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Approaching the Leizhou Peninsula-Western Guangdong Area in Southern China...re-intensifies slightly...about 195 km east-southeast of Zhanjiang, China [11AM AUGUST 14: 20.4N 112.1E @ 165kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
SMALL PIN-HOLE EYE - Still over the Philippine Sea. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: None (still over Philippine Sea) (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: None (still over Philippine Sea).
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Bicol Region, Northern Samar, Eastern Coastal Areas of Aurora, Isabela, Northern Quezon including Polillo Island. (click here to know more about Rainbands)
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 300 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Utor (Labuyo).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 9-12 ft (2.7-3.9 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Northern Coast of Catanduanes & Camarines Provinces, Polillo Island, Northern Quezon, Aurora, & Isabela today until Monday early morning. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Luzon and Visayas (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sun Aug 11, 2013
Class/Name: TY Utor (Labuyo)
Location of Eye: 14.8º N Lat 125.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 140 km NE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 180 km NE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 195 km NE of Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 4: 255 km NE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 265 km ENE of Metro Naga
Distance 6: 270 km ENE of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 7: 365 km E of Polillo Is.
Distance 8: 375 km SE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 9: 410 km ESE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 10: 450 km E of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg):185 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 230 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 3
Present Movement: WNW @ 22 kph
Towards: Aurora-Quirino Area
CPA [ETA] to Aurora: Early Monday [4AM-6AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [300 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft (2.7-3.9 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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