for Monday, 19 August 2013 [7:49 AM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM TRAMI (MARING) UPDATE NUMBER 005
Issued: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Monday 19 August 2013
Next Update: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Monday 19 August 2013
Tropical Storm TRAMI (MARING) has drifted southward while over the North Philippine Sea during the past 12 hours...currently quasi-stationary as it intensifies further.
This storm will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing cloudy and windy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains across the western sections of the Philippines...becoming more frequent along MiMaRoPa, Western Luzon including Metro Manila and CaLaBaRZon today through Tuesday. Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm PEWA (01C) has tracked northwestward over the far Western Pacific Ocean. Latest dynamic forecast models show the system moving across the open seas of the Western Pacific Ocean and may affect Wake Island on Wednesday. Its center was located about 1,470 km southeast of Wake Island or 5,860 km east of the Philippines (13.0N Lat 178.7E Lon)...with maximum winds of 95 km/hr near the center...moving NW @ 15 kph towards Wake Island. This storm is too far to affect any part of the Philippines.
Residents and visitors along Taiwan and the islands of Okinawa-Ryukyu-Miyako-Yaeyama-Batanes Islands should closely monitor the development of Trami (Maring).
Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 5:00 am today, the center of TS Trami (Maring) was located over the North Philippine Sea...about 585 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes or 770 km south of Okinawa, Japan...currently almost stationary..
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 75 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 85 kilometers from the center. Trami (Maring) is a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 280 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Trami (Maring) is estimated to be extreme (550 mm).
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TS Trami (Maring) is expected to move slowly north-northeastward to northward for the next 24 hours...turning northwest to west-northwest by 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Trami (Maring) will remain over the warm open waters of the North Philippine Sea, just to the south of Okinawa thru Wednesday morning as the system moves towards Miyako and Yaeyama Islands
Trami (Maring) is expected to continue gaining strength through the next 24 to 48 hours...and could become a Typhoon on Wednesday, reaching sustained winds of 120 km/hr.
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:
TUESDAY MORNING: Intensifying as it moves north-northeast across the North Philippine Sea...about 630 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes [5AM AUG 20: 21.2N 128.0E @ 95kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Becomes a minimal Typhoon...turns west-northwestward...approaching Miyako and Yaeyama Islands...about 155 km east-southwest of Ishigakijima [5AM AUG 21: 23.9N 125.6E @ 120kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Continues to intensify...passing over the northern tip of Taiwan...about 45 km northwest of Taipei, Taiwan [5AM AUG 22: 25.3N 121.3E @ 140kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-95 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: North Philippine Sea. OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: North Philippine Sea (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 550 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas to the south, west and near the center of Trami (Maring).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon Aug 19, 2013
Class/Name: TS Trami (Maring)
Location of Center: 19.6º N Lat 127.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 570 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 2: 585 km ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 3: 610 km ESE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 4: 640 km SSE of Ishigakijima
Distance 5: 770 km S of Okinawa, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph
Present Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Towards: North Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [550 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 280 km [Small]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 17 ft
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS TRAMI (MARING)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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