for Saturday, 10 August 2013 [1:47 PM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON UTOR (LABUYO) UPDATE NUMBER 005
Issued: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Saturday 10 August 2013
Next Update: 12:00 MN PhT (16:00 GMT) Sunday 11 August 2013
UTOR (LABUYO) is now a 140-km/hr Typhoon as it continues to quickly intensify while moving across the warm waters of the Philippine Sea...now threatening the whole of Luzon with winds and rains beginning Sunday through Monday. Please take all necessary precautions.
Residents and visitors along Luzon including Batanes Group of Islands should closely monitor the development of Utor (Labuyo).
Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 5:00 pm today, the eye of Typhoon Utor (Labuyo) was located over the the Philippine Sea...about 445 km east-northeast of Catarman, Northern Samar or 455 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes...currently moving west with a forward speed of 26 km/hr in the general direction of Aurora-Quirino Area.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to near 140 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 45 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 140 kilometers. Utor (Labuyo) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Utor (Labuyo) is estimated to be heavy (250 mm).
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Typhoon Utor (Labuyo) is expected to continue turn west-northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Utor (Labuyo) will be passing to the north of Bicol Region on Sunday afternoon...approaching the eastern shoreline of Aurora on Sunday evening. The cyclone will make landfall over Aurora between 4-6am on Monday...and cut across Northern Luzon via Quirino-Nueva Vizcaya-Benguet-La Union beginning Monday morning until the afternoon.
Utor (Labuyo) is expected to continue to strengthen within the next 24 to 36 hours...becoming a major Typhoon on Sunday. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows the potential Typhoon reaching peak winds of almost 200 km/hr on Sunday afternoon - before it makes landfall over Aurora.
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Still intensifying...passing to the north of Bicol Region...about 135 km north of Pandan, Catanduanes [5PM AUGUST 11: 15.3N 124.1E @ 195kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Over the West Philippine Sea...about 105 km west-southwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [5PM AUGUST 12: 17.2N 119.5E @ 150kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Exits PAR as it moves across the South China Sea towards Leizhou Peninsula...about 350 km south-southeast of Hong Kong, China [5PM AUGUST 13: 19.2N 114.8E @ 160kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
CLOUD-FILLED EYE - Still over the Philippine Sea. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: None (still over Philippine Sea) (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: None (still over Philippine Sea).
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Eastern Coastal Areas of Catanduanes and Samar. (click here to know more about Rainbands)
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 250 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Utor (Labuyo).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat Aug 10, 2013
Class/Name: TY Utor (Labuyo)
Location of Center: 14.0º N Lat 128.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 445 km ENE of Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 2: 455 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 495 km E of Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 4: 515 km ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 565 km E of Metro Naga
Distance 6: 595 km E of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 7: 705 km ESE of Polillo Island
Distance 8: 720 km SE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 9: 755 km ESE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 10: 790 km ESE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg):140 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 1
Present Movement: West @ 26 kph
Towards: Northern Luzon
CPA [ETA] to Aurora: Early Monday [2AM-5AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [250 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 445 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 22 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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