Tuesday, August 20, 2013

TS TRAMI (MARING) Update #010


for Tuesday, 20 August 2013 [9:07 PM PhT]



Issued: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tuesday 20 August 2013
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wednesday 21 August 2013

Tropical Storm TRAMI (MARING) has changed its course towards the west-northwest threatening Yaeyama and Miyako Islands.

This storm will continue to induce the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) - bringing cloudy and windy conditions with "on-and-off" slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains across the western sections of Luzon and Visayas...becoming more frequent with moderate-to-heavy monsoon rains along Mindoro, the National Capital Region (Metro Manila), Zambales, Cordillera Administrative Region, Central Luzon and CaLaBaRZon tonight through Wednesday. Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm (TS) PEWA (01C) has weakened further while moving across the open seas of the Western Pacific Ocean. Latest dynamic forecast models continues to show the system moving generally northwestward for the next 2 days. Its center was located about 935 km southeast of Wake Island or 5,710 km east of the Philippines (16.1N Lat 174.8E Lon)...with maximum winds of 85 km/hr near the center...moving NW @ 20 kph. This storm remains too far away to affect any part of the Philippines.

Residents and visitors along Taiwan and the islands of Okinawa-Ryukyu-Miyako-Yaeyama-Ishigaki-Batanes Islands should closely monitor the development of Trami (Maring).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 5:00 pm today, the center of TS Trami (Maring) was located over the North Philippine Sea...about 605 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes or 395 km south-southwest of Okinawa, Japan...currently moving northwest with an increased forward speed of 22 km/hr.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have remained at 100 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 140 kilometers from the center. Trami (Maring) has grown into a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 720 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Trami (Maring) is estimated to be extreme (400 mm).


TS Trami (Maring) is expected to move generally towards the west-northwest during the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Trami (Maring) will be passing over the Miyako and Yaeyama Island Group, very close south of Ishigakijima by past midnight tonight...and will pass over the shores of Northern Taiwan by Wednesday afternoon...making landfall over Fujian Province, just close east of Fuzhou City by Thursday early morning. By Friday afternoon, Trami (Maring) will be over Hunan Province moving across land.

Trami (Maring) is expected to gain strength within the next 12 to 24 hours...and could become a Typhoon on Wednesday afternoon. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows Trami (Maring) reaching its peak winds of 120 km/hr on Wednesday afternoon.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes a minimal Typhoon...moving west-northwest towards the northern shores of Taiwan...about 55 km north of Taipei, Taiwan [5PM AUG 21: 25.5N 121.7E @ 120kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens into a Tropical Storm over Southeastern China (Fujian Province) after making landfall over east of Fuzhou City in the early morning......about 240 km west-northwest of Fuzhou, China [5PM AUG 22: 26.7N 117.0E @ 65kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Over Hunan Province...dissipating over land...weakens further into an area of low pressure...about 640 km west-northwest of Fuzhou, China [5PM AUG 23: 27.2N 113.0E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - where Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (100-130 kph) will be expected along the CDO (click here to know more about CDO). Possible "Eye" may also be forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Affected Areas: Northwestern part of North Philippine Sea.
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-99 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Northwestern part of North Philippine Sea.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: North Philippine Sea (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas to the south, west and near the center of Trami (Maring).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue Aug 20, 2013
Class/Name: TS Trami (Maring)
Location of Center: 23.0º N Lat 127.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 345 km ESE of Ishigakijima
Distance 2: 395 km SSW of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 605 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 600 km ENE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 5: 600 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph
Present Movement: West-Northwest @ 22 kph
Towards: Yaeyama and Miyako Islands
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [400 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 720 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 24 ft
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)



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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:


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