Sunday, August 11, 2013

Typhoon UTOR (LABUYO) Update #006


for Sunday, 11 August 2013 [12:54 AM PhT]


Issued: 12:00 MN PhT (16:00 GMT) Sunday 11 August 2013
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sunday 11 August 2013

Typhoon UTOR (LABUYO) has continued its quick at 165 km/hr...increasing its threat to the whole of Luzon including Metro Manila. Its outer rainbands has started to spread across Catanduanes and the east coast of Camarines Provinces. Please take all necessary precautions.

This typhoon has begun enhancing the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) bringing cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across Mindanao, Western and Central Visayas. Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes.

Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the development of Utor (Labuyo).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 11:00 pm this evening August 10, the eye of Typhoon Utor (Labuyo) was located over the the Philippine Sea...about 375 km east-northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or 410 km east-northeast of Caramoan, Camarines Sur...currently moving west with a decreased forward speed of 22 km/hr in the general direction of Aurora-Quirino Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 165 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 165 kilometers. Utor (Labuyo) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Utor (Labuyo) is estimated to be heavy (350 mm).


Typhoon Utor (Labuyo) is expected to continue moving west-northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Utor (Labuyo) will be passing to the north of Bicol Region on Sunday afternoon...approaching the eastern shoreline of Aurora on Sunday evening. The cyclone will then make landfall over Aurora between 5-8am on Monday...and cross Northern Luzon via Quirino-Nueva Vizcaya-Benguet-La Union beginning Monday morning until the afternoon. By Monday evening, Utor will be over the West Philippine Sea on its way towards Southern China.

Utor (Labuyo) is expected to continue gaining strength within the next 12 to 24 hours...becoming a powerful Typhoon on Sunday. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows Utor reaching peak winds of more than 200 km/hr on Sunday evening - before it makes landfall over Aurora. On Monday evening, the typhoon will weaken after crossing Luzon as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

SUNDAY EVENING: Attains its highest sustained wind...approaching the east coast of Aurora...about 115 km southeast of Casiguran, Aurora [11PM AUGUST 11: 15.8N 123.1E @ 205kph].
MONDAY EVENING: Over the West Philippine Sea, moving farther away from Luzon...weakens...about 210 km west of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [11PM AUGUST 12: 17.7N 118.4E @ 150kph].
TUESDAY EVENING: Approaching the Leizhou Peninsula in Southern over the South China Sea...about 270 km south of Hong Kong, China [11PM AUGUST 13: 19.8N 113.9E @ 160kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - Still over the Philippine Sea. Possible calm and lull conditions (with 20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: None (still over Philippine Sea) (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: None (still over Philippine Sea).
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Eastern Coastal Areas of Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte and Samar. (click here to know more about Rainbands)
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 350 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Utor (Labuyo).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Bicol Region, Northern Samar, Polillo Island, Northern Quezon, Aurora, Isabela on Sunday. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Luzon and Visayas (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 11:00 PM PhT Sat Aug 10, 2013
Class/Name: TY Utor (Labuyo)
Location of Center: 14.2º N Lat 127.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 365 km E of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 375 km ENE of Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 3: 375 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 4: 410 km ENE of Caramoan, CamSur
Distance 5: 440 km ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 6: 480 km ENE of Metro Naga
Distance 7: 505 km E of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 8: 615 km ESE of Polillo Island
Distance 9: 630 km SE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 10: 700 km E of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg):165 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 2
Present Movement: WNW @ 22 kph
Towards: Northern Luzon
CPA [ETA] to Aurora: Early Monday [5AM-8AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [350 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 445 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 22 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m)

T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)


CURRENT TRACKING MAP: _____________________________________________________________________________




>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

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