Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Typhoon UTOR (LABUYO) Update #014


for Tuesday, 13 August 2013 [8:00 AM PhT]


Issued: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Tuesday 13 August 2013
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tuesnday 13 August 2013

Typhoon UTOR (LABUYO) has moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...accelerating across the South China Sea and now endangers Southern China especially Hainan Island, Leizhou Peninsula and Western Guangdong...outer rainbands approaching the shorelines of Southern China & Hainan Island.

This typhoon will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) bringing cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across Vietnam and the Philippines (particularly the western sections) today. Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes.

Residents and visitors along Southern China including Hainan Island and Northern Vietnam should closely monitor the development of Utor (Labuyo).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 5:00 am today, the center of Typhoon Utor (Labuyo) was located over the South China Sea...about 485 km south-southeast of Hong Kong or 490 km west-northwest of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur...currently moving west with an incresed forward speed of 30 km/hr in the general direction of Southern China.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 165 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 260 kilometers. A WeatherPhilippines/Meteomedia Automated Weather Station (AWS) based in Baguio City, Benguet has recorded 209.4 millimeters (mm) of rainfall in a span of 24 hours, which is considered heavy. Another Meteomedia/WeatherPhilippines Weather Station located in Baler, Aurora (LPP), recorded wind gusts of 107 km/hr blowing from the west-southwest. Utor (Labuyo) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 650 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Utor (Labuyo) is estimated to be extreme (450 mm).


Typhoon Utor (Labuyo) is expected to continue moving west-northwestward for the next 12 hours...turning northwesterly throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Utor (Labuyo) will approaching the east coast of Western Guangdong on Wednesday morning...and will make landfall over or very near Zhanjiang City Wednesday evening. By Thursday morning, Utor will be moving over land across the southern part of Guangxi Province.

Utor (Labuyo) is expected to slightly regain strength as it traverses the South China Sea. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows Utor reaching its peak intensity of 185 km/hr by Wednesday morning...and will weaken to just 140 km/hr by Thursday morning.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Approaching the coast of Western Guangdong...re-intensifies...about 210 km east of Haikou, Hainan Island [5AM AUGUST 14: 20.0N 112.3E @ 185kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Over the southern part of Guangxi Province...dissipating over land...about 115 km northwest of Zhanjiang City, China [5AM AUGUST 15: 21.9N 109.6E @ 140kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Weakens to a Tropical Depression (TD) while moving along the western part of Guangxi Province...about 230 km north-northwest of Mong Cai, Vietnam [5AM AUGUST 16: 23.5N 107.3E @ 55kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - Over the South China Sea. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Northwest portion of the South China Sea (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-100 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Northwest part of the South China Sea.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: South China Sea and West Philippine Sea (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 450 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Utor (Labuyo).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date:5:00 AM PhT Tue Aug 13, 2013
Class/Name: TY Utor (Labuyo)
Location of Center: 18.1º N Lat 115.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 490 km WNW of Vigan City
Distance 2: 485 km SSE of Hong Kong
Distance 3: 510 km SE of Macao
Distance 4: 570 km ESE of Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 5: 620 km ESE of Haikou, Hainan
Distance 6: 660 km SE of Zhanjiang, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg):165 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 2
Present Movement: West @ 30 kph
Towards: Southern China
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [450 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 650 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 34 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m)

T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)



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