for Thursday, 01 August 2013 [10:17 AM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM JEBI (JOLINA) UPDATE NUMBER 003
Issued: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday 01 August 2013
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Thursday 01 August 2013
Tropical Storm JEBI (JOLINA) has moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it moves westward across the South China Sea...threatens Hainan Island.
This storm will continue to slightly enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and bring cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across MiMaRoPa, Zambales, Bataan, Western Batangas, CaLaBaRZon, and some parts of Western Luzon incl. Metro Manila. Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along mountain slopes.
Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance 93W (LPA) becoming better organized while moving NW near the coast of Northern Cagayan. Its developing center was located about 85 km ENE of Santa Ana, Cagayan (18.7N Lat 122.9E Lon)...with maximum winds of 30 km/hr near the center...moving NW @ 19 kph. This disturbance has a medium chance (30-50%) of developing into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours. Its rainbands together with the slight SW Monsoon (Habagat) will bring moderate to heavy rains with thunderstorms along Cagayan, Isabela and the Calayan-Babuyan-Batanes Island Group today.
Residents and visitors along Hainan Island, Southern China and Northern Vietnam should closely monitor the development of Jebi (Jolina).
Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 6:00 am today, the center of TS Jebi (Jolina) was located over the South China Sea...about 550 km southeast of Qionghai, Hainan Island or 675 km west of Iba, Zambales...currently moving westward with an increased forward speed of 17 km/hr in the general direction of Hainan Island.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 65 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Jebi (Jolina) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 665 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Jebi (Jolina) is estimated to be heavy (350 mm).
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TS Jebi (Jolina) is expected to move northwest for the next 24 hours with a turn to the west-northwest throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Jebi (Jolina) will be approaching southern coast of Hainan Island on Friday morning...making landfall over Southern Hainan on Friday evening...and will be over the Gulf of Tonkin on Saturday morning.
Jebi (Jolina) will continue to intensify within the next 24 to 36 hours as it moves towards Hainan Island. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows the storm reaching its peak sustained winds of 95 km/hr on Friday afternoon...weakening to 85 km/hr on Saturday morning.
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook and an extended 3-day forecast on this system:
FRIDAY MORNING: Continues to strengthen as it approaches Southern Hainan...about 290 km southeast of Qionghai, Hainan Island [6AM AUGUST 02: 17.0N 112.0E @ 85kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Weakens slightly after crossing Southern Hainan...emerging over the Gulf of Tonkin...about 30 km north-northwest of Dongfang, Hainan Island [6AM AUGUST 03: 19.3N 108.5E @ 85kph]. SUNDAY MORNING: Dissipating over Northern Vietnam...about 210 km west of Hanoi, Vietnam [6AM AUGUST 04: 21.0N 103.8E @ 75kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-85 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Central portion of the South China Sea. OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-55 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal, West Philippine and South China Seas. (click here to know more about Rainbands) 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 350 mm (heavy) along areas to the south, west and near the center of Jebi (Jolina).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Thu Aug 01, 2013
Class/Name: TS Jebi (Jolina)
Location of Center: 15.3º N Lat 113.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 550 km SE of Qionghai, Hainan Is.
Distance 2: 560 km SE of Sanya, Hainan
Distance 3: 595 km ESE of Da Nang, Vietnam
Distance 4: 665 km ESE of Hue, Vietnam
Distance 5: 675 km W of Iba, Zambales
Distance 6: 770 km SSW of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph
Present Movement: West @ 17 kph
Towards: Hainan Island
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [350 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 665 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS JEBI (JOLINA)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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