for Friday, 02 August 2013 [9:59 PM PhT]
WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TROPICAL STORM JEBI (JOLINA) UPDATE NUMBER 006
Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday 02 August 2013
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday 03 August 2013
Tropical Storm JEBI (JOLINA) has rapidly gained more strength during the past 12 hours while over the warm waters of the South China Sea...intensifying into a severe tropical storm or near typhoon strength...and increasing its threat to Hainan Island.
This storm will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) bringing cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam. Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along mountain slopes.
Residents and visitors along Hainan Island, Southern China and Northern Vietnam should closely monitor the development of Jebi (Jolina).
Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 6:00 pm today, the center of TS Jebi (Jolina) was located over the South China Sea...about 65 km east-northeast of Qionghai, Hainan Island or 405 km southwest of Macau, China...currently moving northwestward with an increased forward speed of 20 km/hr towards northern part of Hainan Island.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 110 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 150 kilometers from the center. Jebi (Jolina) has reduced to an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Jebi (Jolina) is estimated to be extreme (400 mm).
1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
TS Jebi (Jolina) is expected to move northwest to west-northwest for the next 24 to 36 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Jebi (Jolina) will cross Northern Hainan Island tonight...emerging over the Gulf of Tonkin on Saturday early morning...and making landfall over Northern Vietnam on Saturday noontime. By Sunday morning, the remnants of Jebi (Jolina) will be over the northwestern border of Northern Vietnam.
Jebi (Jolina) is expected to slightly weaken within the next 12 hours as it crosses Northern Hainan Island. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows the storm weakening to 75 km/hr on Saturday afternoon...and weakens further to an area of low pressure on Sunday morning.
The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:
SATURDAY EVENING: Over Northern Vietnam...about 110 km northeast of Hanoi City [6PM AUGUST 03: 21.8N 106.4E @ 75kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Dissipating over western part of Northern Vietnam...about 280 km west-northwest of Hanoi City [6AM AUGUST 04: 22.5N 103.8E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Tracks have an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - where Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (100-130 kph) will be expected along the CDO (click here to know more about CDO). Possible "Eye" may also be forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Affected Areas: Eastern part of Hainan Island.
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-99 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: The rest of Hainan Island and the Western-mid portion of the South China Sea.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-55 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Eastern Coast of Vietnam, Southwestern China, West Philippine and South China Seas. (click here to know more about Rainbands)
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas to the south, west and near the center of Jebi (Jolina).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Fri Aug 02, 2013
Class/Name: TS Jebi (Jolina)
Location of Center: 19.4º N Lat 111.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 65 km ENE of Qionghai, Hainan Is.
Distance 2: 225 km NE of Sanya, Hainan Is.
Distance 3: 115 km SE of Haikou, Hainan Is.
Distance 4: 160 km E of Danzhou, Hainan Is.
Distance 5: 225 km SSE of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 6: 405 km SW of Macau
Distance 7: 455 km SW of Hong Kong
Distance 8: 1000 km WNW of Vigan City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph
Present Movement: NW @ 20 kph
Towards: Northern Hainan Island
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [400 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 23 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT TRACKING MAP:
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS JEBI (JOLINA)...go visit our website @:
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