Sunday, December 09, 2012

Typhoon BOPHA (PABLO) Update #039


for Saturday, 08 December 2012 [9:00 PM PhT]


Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday 08 Dec 2012
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sunday 09 Dec 2012

Typhoon Bopha (Pablo) weakens further as it moves closer to the coast of Ilocos Provinces.

Typhoon Alert: With its possible projected path, areas from Ilocos Provinces down to La Union, Pangasinan, Benguet, and Zambales may experience Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) with "on-and-off" slight/moderate/heavy rains beginning this evening or Sunday (kindly view the EFFECTS and HAZARDS SUMMARY at the middle bottom of this update). Please take all precautionary measures on this powerful cyclone. Refer to your national disaster agencies for more details.

Residents and visitors along Northern and Central Luzon should closely monitor the development of Bopha (Pablo).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 6 pm today, the eye of Typhoon Bopha was located over the West Philippine Sea...about 180 km west of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur or 203 km northwest of San Fernando City, La Union...currently moving east-northeast with a forward speed of 20 km/hr in the general direction near the shores of Ilocos Sur, La Union and Pangasinan.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 175 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 75 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 195 kilometers. Bopha is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a decreased diameter of 445 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Typhoon Bopha is estimated to be exteme (500 mm).


Typhoon Bopha is expected to turn east to east-southeast during the next 24 hours...with a decrease in its forward speed...may execute a clockwise loop by way of south beginning Sunday...and accelerate southwesterly in Monday through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Bopha is expected to just be near the coast of Ilocos Sur on Sunday but should move closer to the shorelines of La Union and Pangasinan on Monday, before moving again away into the West Philippine Sea on Tuesday.

Bopha will continue to weaken throughout the forecast period due to the surge of cool dry-air feeding into its circulation and increasing unfavorable atmospheric environment surrounding the system.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY EVENING: Just along the coast of Ilocos Sur...slows down rapidly...weakens to Category 1...about 75 km west of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [6PM DEC 09: 17.7N 119.7E @ 120kph].
MONDAY EVENING: Drifting very slowly near the coast of La Union and Pangasinan as it executes a clockwise loop...weakens to a Tropical Storm...about 25 km north-northeast of Cape Bolinao, Pangasinan [6PM DEC 10: 16.5N 119.9E @ 85kph].
TUESDAY EVENING: Accelerating southwesterly...back towards the West Philippine Sea...about 238 km west of Subic Bay, Zambales [6PM DEC 11: 14.6N 118.1E @ 65kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (West Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (West Philippine Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Pangasinan, La Union, Benguet, Cagayan, Apayao, Kalinga, Abra and the Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Group of Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 500 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Bopha.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Ilocos Region, La Union, Pangasinan and Zambales this weekend through Monday. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Western Visayas and the rest of Western Luzon (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Fri December 07, 2012
Class/Name: TY Bopha (Pablo)
Location of Eye: 17.6º N Lat 118.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 180 km (W) from Vigan City
Distance 2: 186 km (NW) from Cape Bolinao, Pangasinan
Distance 3: 203 km (NW) from San Fernando City
Distance 4: 212 km (WSW) from Laoag City
Distance 5: 242 km (NW) from Baguio City
Distance 6: 243 km (WSW) from Pagudpud, Ilocos Norte
Distance 7: 254 km (NW) from Dagupan City
Distance 8: 296 km (NNW) from Iba, Zambales
Distance 9: 340 km (WSW) from Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 10: 436 km (NW) from Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 175 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 215 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 2
Present Movement: ENE @ 20 kph
Towards: West Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [500 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 445 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 42 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m)

T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)







>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TY BOPHA (PABLO)...go visit our website @:


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