Monday, December 03, 2012

Typhoon BOPHA (PABLO) Update #021


for Monday, 03 December 2012 [8:32 AM PhT]



Issued: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Monday 03 Dec 2012
Next Update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Monday 03 Dec 2012

Typhoon Bopha (Pablo) no longer super as it moves quickly threatens Surigao and Agusan Provinces. The possible landfall area is along the Bislig-Hinatuan Area on Tuesday morning.

Important Note: Typhoon Bopha (Pablo) is almost three times the strength of Tropical Storm Washi (Sendong) which crossed North-Central Mindanao on December 16, 2011. Please take all precautionary measures on this dangerous cyclone. Refer to your national disaster agencies for more details.

Residents and visitors along Mindanao and Visayas should closely monitor the development of Bopha (Pablo).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 6 am today, the eye of Typhoon Bopha was located over the Philippine Sea...about 260 km west-southwest of Koror, Palau or 670 km east-southeast of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur...currently moving west with a forward speed of 28 km/hr in the general direction of Surigao Del Sur.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 215 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 165 kilometers. Bopha remains a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 775 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Typhoon Bopha is estimated to be heavy (350 mm).


Typhoon Bopha is expected to turn west-northwest track for the next 24 to 48 hours with a decrease in its forward speed. After 48 hours, its track will shift to the northwest.. On the forecast track, the core of Bopha is expected to make landfall in between Bislig City and the town of Hinatuan on Tuesday morning (approx. 7-8 am Manila Time)...and should cross Surigao Del Sur and Misamis Oriental Tuesday morning until the afternoon, passing more or less 50 km north of Cagayan De Oro City between 4-6pm. By Tuesday evening, Bopha should emerge over the Bohol Sea and then cross Southern Negros passing very close to Dumaguete City between 7-8pm. The typhoon will traverse Sulu Sea Wednesday morning...and may pass very close to El Nido, Palawan Wednesday evening.

Bopha will continue to weaken throughout the forecast period due to lower Ocean Heat Content (OHC) or slightly cooler sea-surface temperatures along the Philippine Sea and the effects of land interaction.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY MORNING: Off the coast of Surigao Del Sur...prepares to make landfall...about 45 km east of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur...weakens to a Category 3 Typhoon [6AM DEC 04: 8.1N 126.7E @ 195kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Over Sulu Sea...about 117 km southwest of Iloilo City...weakens to Category 1 [6AM DEC 05: 10.0N 121.8E @ 130kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Just barely a Typhoon as it moves NW across the West Philippine Sea...about 93 km northwest of El Nido, Palawan [6AM DEC 06: 11.9N 119.1E @ 120kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (Philippine Sea) Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the Republic of Palau and other smaller islands of Western and Central Micronesia...expected to reach Eastern Mindanao this afternoon. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 350 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Bopha.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 13-18 ft (4-5.5 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Surigao Provinces and Davao Oriental beginning tonight. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Western Micronesia, Eastern Mindanao and the Marianas (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Mon December 03, 2012
Class/Name: TY Bopha (Pablo)
Location of Eye: 6.7º N Lat 132.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 260 km (WSW) away from Koror, Palau
Distance 2: 663 km (E) from Mati City
Distance 3: 670 km (ESE) from Bislig City
Distance 4: 730 km (ESE) from Metro Davao
Distance 5: 777 km (ESE) from Butuan City
Distance 6: 794 km (SE) from Siargao Island
Distance 7: 809 km (ESE) from Malaybalay City
Distance 8: 814 km (SE) from Surigao City
Distance 9: 860 km (ESE) from Cagayan De Oro City
Distance 10: 870 km (ESE) from Camiguin Island
Distance 11: 898 km (ESE) from Iligan City
Distance 12: 995 km (SE) from Metro Cebu
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 215 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 260 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 4
Present Movement: West @ 28 kph
Towards: Surigao Del Sur
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [350 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 775 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 52 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft (4-5.5 m)

T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)







>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TY BOPHA (PABLO)...go visit our website @:


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