Wednesday, December 05, 2012

Typhoon BOPHA (PABLO) Update #028


for Wednesday, 05 December 2012 [9:21 PM PhT]


Issued: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Wednesday 05 Dec 2012
Next Update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Wednesday 05 Dec 2012

Typhoon Bopha (Pablo) weakens as it approaches Northern Palawan...expected to pass over the area later this morning. Typhoon Conditions with large sea waves will occur near the path of this system.

Residents and visitors along Palawan should closely monitor the development of Bopha (Pablo).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 6 am today, the center of Typhoon Bopha was located over Sulu Sea...about 146 km east-northeast of Puerto Princesa, Palawan or 148 km south-southeast of El Nido, Palawan...currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 28 km/hr in the general direction of Northern Palawan and West Philippine Sea.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 160 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers. Bopha is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Typhoon Bopha is estimated to be exteme (450 mm).


Typhoon Bopha is expected to continue moving west-northwest for the next 24 hours with little change in its forward speed. Around 36 to 72 hours, its track will turn to the northwest and slow down. On the forecast track, the core of Bopha is expected to traverse Northern Palawan this morning...and will be over the West Philippine Sea tonight through Saturday as it is forecast to slow down.

Bopha will slightly re-intensify during the next one to two days, as the system moves over the warm temperatures of the West Philippine Sea. This typphoon will start to dissipate due to the surge of cool and dry northeasterly winds.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY MORNING: Moving away from Northern Palawan towards the West Philippine Sea...about 221 km northwest of Puerto Princesa, Palawan [6AM DEC 06: 11.3N 117.5E @ 160kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Re-intensifies and slows down while over the West Philippines...about 481 km west-southwest of Lubang Island [6AM DEC 07: 12.7N 115.9E @ 165kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Drifting very slowly across the West Philippine Sea...weakens slightly...about 522 km west of Lubang Island [6AM DEC 08: 13.3N 115.4E @ 160kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (Sulu Sea)...but will pass over Northern Palawan this morning. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - approaching Northern Palawan. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Northern and Central Palawan, Cuyo and Pamalican Islands, and the Calamian Group of Islands. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Visayas, Mindoro and Southern Palawan. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 450 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Bopha.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Negros and Panay Islands, Bohol and Cebu. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Western Micronesia, Rest of Mindanao and the Visayas (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Wed December 05, 2012
Class/Name: TY Bopha (Pablo)
Location of Eye: 10.0º N Lat 120.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 146 km (ENE) from Puerto Princesa
Distance 2: 148 km (SW) from Cuyo Island
Distance 3: 148 km (SSE) from El Nido
Distance 4: 173 km (SSW) from Pamalican Island
Distance 5: 223 km (S) from Coron, Palawan
Distance 6: 284 km (WSW) from Iloilo City
Distance 7: 296 km (SW) from Boracay
Distance 8: 303 km (WSW) from Guimaras Island
Distance 9: 307 km (W) from Kabankalan
Distance 10: 324 km (WSW) from Bacolod City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 160 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 195 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 2
Present Movement: WNW @ 28 kph
Towards: Northern Palawan
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [450 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 29 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m)

T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)







>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TY BOPHA (PABLO)...go visit our website @:


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