Tuesday, December 04, 2012

Typhoon BOPHA (PABLO) Update #024


for Tuesday, 04 December 2012 [2:03 AM PhT]


Issued: 1:00 AM PhT (17:00 GMT) Tuesday 04 Dec 2012
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday 04 Dec 2012

Bopha (Pablo) is now considered an extremely catastrophic Category 5 Super Typhoon with winds of 260 km/hr...and could become the worst typhoon ever to hit Mindanao since Super Typhoon Kate (Titang) of October 1970. Its core is now approaching the coast of Surigao Del Sur and Davao Oriental. Possible Time of Landfall: between 4-6 am somewhere along Cateel Bay, Davao Oriental.

Important Note: Super Typhoon Bopha (Pablo) is almost three times the strength of Tropical Storm Washi (Sendong) which crossed North-Central Mindanao on December 16, 2011. Please take all precautionary measures on this dangerous cyclone. Refer to your national disaster agencies for more details.

Residents and visitors along Mindanao and Visayas should closely monitor the development of Bopha (Pablo).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 12 midnight today, the eye of Super Typhoon Bopha was located approaching the coast of Davao Oriental and Surigao Del Sur...about 173 km east-southeast of Bislig City or 236 km east-northeast of Metro Davao...currently moving west to west-northwest with a forward speed of 31 km/hr in the general direction of Davao Oriental-Surigao Del Sur Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 260 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 65 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 215 kilometers. Bopha remains a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 775 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Typhoon Bopha is estimated to be extreme (400 mm).


Super Typhoon Bopha is expected to continue moving west to west-northwest for the next 24 hours with a slight decrease in its forward speed. After 24 hours, its track will turn to the northwest...and this motion will continue throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Bopha is expected to make landfall along the Davao Oriental-Surigao Del Sur Border this morning (approx. 4-6 am Manila Time)...and cross Surigao Del Sur, Agusan Del Sur and Misamis Oriental Tuesday morning until the early afternoon, passing over or very close to Cagayan De Oro City between 1-2 pm. By Tuesday evening, Bopha should emerge over the Bohol Sea near the coast of Misamis Occidental, and then traverse Southern Coast of Negros passing just south of Dumaguete City between 6 to 8 pm. This typhoon will then traverse Sulu Sea Wednesday morning...and pass along the northern tip of Palawan, very close to El Nido, Palawan by Wednesday evening.

Bopha could still slightly gain strength prior in making landfall. It will then slightly weaken upon crossing the mountains of Mindanao, but will re-intensify throughout the forecast period due to its emergence over the warm Sulu Sea and West Philippine Sea.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY MIDNIGHT: Just along the coast of Southern Negros...weakens to Category 3...about 95 km south-southwest of Kabankalan City, Negros Occidental [12AM DEC 05: 9.3N 122.3E @ 205kph].
THURSDAY MIDNIGHT: Just along the shores of Northern Palawan as it weakens slightly...about 79 km west-northwest of El Nido, Northern Palawan [12AM DEC 06: 11.5N 119.3E @ 195kph].
FRIDAY MIDNIGHT: Regains strength slightly as it moves into the West Philippine Sea...about 334 km west-northwest of Coron, Northern Palawan [12AM DEC 07: 13.0N 117.3E @ 205kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

ROUND EYE - over water (Philippine Sea) Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas....but approaching the coast of Surigao Del Sur and Davao Oriental. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Caraga Region and Davao Oriental. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Northern, Central and Southern Mindanao. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Bopha.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible >18 ft (>5.5 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Caraga Region and Davao Oriental today. Catastrophic damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Western Micronesia, Rest of Mindanao and the Visayas (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 12:00 MN PhT Tue December 04, 2012
Class/Name: STY Bopha (Pablo)
Location of Eye: 7.5º N Lat 127.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 173 km (ESE) from Bislig City
Distance 2: 183 km (NE) from Mati City
Distance 3: 236 km (ENE) from Metro Davao
Distance 4: 282 km (SE) from Butuan City
Distance 5: 322 km (SE) from Siargao Island
Distance 6: 305 km (ESE) from Malaybalay City
Distance 7: 352 km (SE) from Surigao City
Distance 8: 359 km (ESE) from Cagayan De Oro City
Distance 9: 380 km (SE) from Camiguin Island
Distance 10: 393 km (ESE) from Iligan City
Distance 11: 488 km (SE) from Tagbilaran City
Distance 12: 520 km (SE) from Metro Cebu
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 260 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 315 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 5
Present Movement: W-WNW @ 31 kph
Towards: Davao Oriental-Surigao Del Sur Area
CPA [ETA] to Surigao DS-Davao Oriental Border: Tue Morning [5-6AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [400 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 918 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 775 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 52 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: >18 ft (>5.5 m)

T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)










>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:


For the complete details on STY BOPHA (PABLO)...go visit our website @:


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