Tuesday, December 04, 2012

Typhoon BOPHA (PABLO) Update #026


for Tuesday, 04 December 2012 [2:49 PM PhT]


Issued: 2:00 PM PhT (06:00 GMT) Tuesday 04 Dec 2012
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Tuesday 04 Dec 2012

The weakening core of Typhoon Bopha (Pablo) is now moving across Misamis Oriental, very near Cagayan De Oro. Typhoon conditions will continue this afternoon.

Important Note: Super Typhoon Bopha (Pablo) is almost three times the strength of Tropical Storm Washi (Sendong) which crossed North-Central Mindanao on December 16, 2011. Please take all precautionary measures on this dangerous cyclone. Refer to your national disaster agencies for more details.

Residents and visitors along Mindanao and Visayas should closely monitor the development of Bopha (Pablo).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 12 noon today, the center of Typhoon Bopha was located over Misamis Oriental...about 31 km southeast of Cagayan De Oro or 67 km east of Iligan City, Lanao Del Norte...currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 26 km/hr in the general direction of Sulu Sea.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly decreased to 175 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 35 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 215 kilometers. Bopha remains a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 775 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Typhoon Bopha is estimated to be heavy (330 mm).


Typhoon Bopha is expected to continue moving west-northwest for the next 12 hours with little change in its forward speed. After 24 hours, its track will turn to the northwest...and this motion will continue throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Bopha is expected to pass over Misamis Oriental, passing very close to Cagayan De Oro this afternoon. This evening, the typhoon should emerge over the coast of Misamis Occidental passing very close to Dipolog City...and pass very close to the coast of Southern Negros. By Wednesday morning, Bopha should be moving across the Sulu Sea, crossing Northern Palawan on Wednesday evening. By Thursday and Friday, Bopha shall slow down while over the West Philippine Sea.

Bopha will continue to weaken upon crossing the mountains of Central Mindanao today. Further weakening will be anticipated once the typhoon emerges over the Sulu and West Philippine Sea due to the surge of cool northeast monsoon from mainland China. However, there might be still some fluctuations in its intensity before it eventually weaken.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY NOON: Over Sulu Sea...approaching Northern Palawan...about 78 km southwest of Cuyo Island [12PM DEC 05: 10.4N 120.5E @ 160kph].
THURSDAY NOON: Moving into the West Philippine Sea...slows down...about 275 km west-northwest of Coron, Calamian Group [12PM DEC 06: 12.4N 117.7E @ 150kph].
FRIDAY NOON: Weakens to a Tropical Storm while over the West Philippine Sea...moving northwest slowly away from the Philippines...about 409 km west-northwest of Coron, Calamian Group [12PM DEC 07: 13.1N 116.6E @ 130kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

DECAYING EYE - very near Cagayan De Oro City. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - affecting Misamis Oriental and Lanao Del Norte. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Davao Provinces, Bukidnon, Compostela Valley, North Cotabato, Misamis Occidental, and Zamboanga Peninsula. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the Rest of Mindanao and the Visayas. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 330 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Bopha.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Misamis and Lanao Provinces, Zamboanga Del Norte today, Southern Negros. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Western Micronesia, Rest of Mindanao and the Visayas (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Tue December 04, 2012
Class/Name: TY Bopha (Pablo)
Location of Eye: 8.3º N Lat 124.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 31 km (SE) from Cagayan De Oro City
Distance 2: 32 km (NW) from Malaybalay City
Distance 3: 67 km (E) from Iligan City
Distance 4: 101 km (S) from Camiguin Island
Distance 5: 102 km (SW) from Butuan City
Distance 6: 112 km (ENE) from Ozamiz City
Distance 7: 168 km (ESE) from Dipolog City
Distance 8: 182 km (SSE) from Tagbilaran City
Distance 9: 199 km (SE) from Dumaguete City
Distance 10: 243 km (SSE) from Metro Cebu
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 175 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 215 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 2
Present Movement: WNW @ 26 kph
Towards: Sulu Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [330 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 775 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): XX feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft (4-5.5 m)

T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)










>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:


For the complete details on TY BOPHA (PABLO)...go visit our website @:


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