Monday, December 03, 2012

Typhoon BOPHA (PABLO) Update #022


for Monday, 03 December 2012 [1:34 PM PhT]



Issued: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Monday 03 Dec 2012
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday 03 Dec 2012

Typhoon Bopha (Pablo) a little weaker as it gained more speed westward closer to Eastern Mindanao...endangers Caraga Region. The possible landfall area is just to the south of Bislig City on Tuesday morning.

Important Note: Typhoon Bopha (Pablo) is almost three times the strength of Tropical Storm Washi (Sendong) which crossed North-Central Mindanao on December 16, 2011. Please take all precautionary measures on this dangerous cyclone. Refer to your national disaster agencies for more details.

Residents and visitors along Mindanao and Visayas should closely monitor the development of Bopha (Pablo).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.


As of 12 noon today, the eye of Typhoon Bopha was located over the Philippine Sea...about 506 km east-southeast of Bislig City, Surigao Del Sur or 563 km east-southeast of Metro Davao...currently moving westward with a forward speed of 30 km/hr in the general direction of Caraga Region.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to 205 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 165 kilometers. Bopha remains a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 775 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Typhoon Bopha is estimated to be extreme (400 mm).


Typhoon Bopha is expected to turn west-northwest for the next 24 to 48 hours with a decrease in its forward speed. After 48 hours, its track will shift to the northwest.. On the forecast track, the core of Bopha is expected to make landfall just south of Bislig City on Tuesday morning (approx. 6-7 am Manila Time)...and cross Surigao Del Sur, Agusan Del Sur and Misamis Oriental Tuesday morning until the afternoon, passing more or less 50 km north of Cagayan De Oro City between 4-5pm. By Tuesday evening, Bopha should emerge over the Bohol Sea and then traverse Southern Negros passing very close to Dumaguete City between 11 pm to 12 midnight. The typhoon will traverse Sulu Sea Wednesday morning...passing close to Cuyo and Pamalican Islands around Wednesday noon...very close to El Nido, Palawan Wednesday evening.

Bopha will weaken throughout the forecast period due to slightly lower Ocean Heat Content (OHC) or cooler sea-surface temperatures along the coast of Mindanao and the effects of land interaction.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY NOON: Over Misamis Oriental...about 67 km east of Cagayan De Oro...weakens to a Category 2 Typhoon [12PM DEC 04: 8.4N 125.2E @ 160kph].
WEDNESDAY NOON: Over Sulu Sea...about 111 km south of Amanpulo, Pamalican Island...weakens to a Tropical Storm [12PM DEC 05: 10.4N 120.7E @ 110kph].
THURSDAY NOON: Continues to weaken as it moves slowly northwest across the West Philippine Sea...about 191 km northwest of El Nido, Palawan [12PM DEC 06: 12.3N 118.2E @ 100kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

ROUND EYE - over water (Philippine Sea) Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas...but will reach Caraga Region and Davao Oriental later tonight or early Tuesday. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Caraga Region and Davao Oriental. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Bopha.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 9-12 ft (2.7-3.9 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Caraga Region and Davao Oriental beginning tonight. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Western Micronesia, Rest of Mindanao and the Visayas (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Mon December 03, 2012
Class/Name: TY Bopha (Pablo)
Location of Eye: 6.9º N Lat 130.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 497 km (E) from Mati City
Distance 2: 506 km (ESE) from Bislig City
Distance 3: 563 km (ESE) from Metro Davao
Distance 4: 614 km (ESE) from Butuan City
Distance 5: 632 km (SE) from Siargao Island
Distance 6: 642 km (ESE) from Malaybalay City
Distance 7: 657 km (SE) from Surigao City
Distance 8: 695 km (ESE) from Cagayan De Oro City
Distance 9: 708 km (ESE) from Camiguin Island
Distance 10: 731 km (ESE) from Iligan City
Distance 11: 816 km (SE) from Tagbilaran City
Distance 12: 838 km (SE) from Metro Cebu
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 205 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 250 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 3
Present Movement: West @ 30 kph
Towards: Caraga Region
CPA [ETA] to Surigao Del Sur: Tue Morning [6-7AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [400 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 941 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 775 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 48 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft (2.7-3.9 m)

T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)







>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TY BOPHA (PABLO)...go visit our website @:


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