WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON BOPHA (PABLO) UPDATE NUMBER 036
Issued: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Friday 07 Dec 2012
Next Update: 6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Saturday 08 Dec 2012
Bopha (Pablo) has re-intensified back to a typhoon...may threaten Western Luzon.
Residents and visitors along Vietnam and Western Luzon should closely monitor the development of Bopha (Pablo).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 6 pm today, the eye of Typhoon Bopha was located over the West Philippine Sea...about 429 km west of Iba, Zambales or 465 km west-northwest of Subic Bay, Zambales...currently moving north-northeast with a forward speed of 15 km/hr..
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to 165 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 30 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 140 kilometers. Bopha is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Tropical Storm Bopha is estimated to be exteme (550 mm).
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Typhoon Bopha's forecast outlook has suddenly changed from its previous one...and is now expected to turn northeast to eastward during the next 48 hours, creating a clockwise loop by way of south through 72 hours. On the new forecast track, the core of Bopha is expected to remain over the West Philippine Sea during the next 3 days but should move closer to the coast of La Union and Pangasinan on Sunday, before moving back again into the middle of the West Philippine Sea.
Bopha will continue to re-intensify due to some warm moist air over the West Philippine Sea which entered its circulation. During the latter part of the forecast period, another surge of cool dry air from the Northeast Monsoon could weaken Bopha.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
SATURDAY EVENING: Moving NNE towards Western Luzon as it maintains its strength...about 373 km west of San Fernando City, La Union [6PM DEC 08: 16.6N 116.8E @ 165kph].
SUNDAY EVENING: Turns eastward slowly as it begins its clockwise loop back to the West Philippine Sea...weakens...about 225 km west of San Fernando City, La Union [6PM DEC 09: 16.8N 118.2E @ 150kph].
MONDAY EVENING: Continues to weaken as it moves quickly to the southwest...back towards the West Philippine Sea...about 281 km west-northwest of Iba, Zambales [6PM DEC 10: 15.6N 117.4E @ 120kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
20-KM RAGGED EYE - over water (West Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE). EYEWALL - over water (West Philippine Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (West Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 550 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Bopha.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Fri December 07, 2012
Class/Name: TY Bopha (Pablo)
Location of Eye: 15.3º N Lat 116.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 429 km (W) from Iba, Zambales
Distance 2: 465 km (WNW) from Subic Bay
Distance 3: 467 km (WSW) from Dagupan City
Distance 4: 482 km (SW) from San Fernando City
Distance 5: 507 km (WSW) from Baguio City
Distance 6: 534 km (SW) from Vigan City
Distance 7: 553 km (WNW) from Metro Manila
Distance 8: 586 km (SW) from Laoag City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 2
Present Movement: NNE @ 15 kph
Towards: West Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [550 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 445 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 23 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING CHART:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY BOPHA (PABLO)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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