WEATHER.COM.PH / T2K TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES
TYPHOON BOPHA UPDATE NUMBER 016
Issued: 12:00 NN PhT (04:00 GMT) Saturday 01 Dec 2012
Next Update: 6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Saturday 01 Dec 2012
Powerful Typhoon Bopha continues to intensify rapidly...now a Category 4 Tropical Cyclone with winds of 215 km/hr. This howler endangers the Republic of Palau...expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) early Monday morning.
Residents and visitors along Micronesia, Marianas and the Philippines (especially Mindanao, Visayas and Bicol Region) should closely monitor the development of Bopha (26W).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.
CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS
As of 11 am today, the eye of Typhoon Bopha was located over Central Micronesia...about 815 km east-southeast of Koror, Republic of Palau or 1,705 km east-southeast of Mati City, Davao Oriental...currently moving west-northwest with a reduced forward speed of 19 km/hr in the general direction of the Republic of Palau.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to 215 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 175 kilometers. Bopha is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 720 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Typhoon Bopha is estimated to be extreme (400 mm).
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*
Typhoon Bopha is expected to continue moving generally west-northwest for the next 24 to 48 hours with little change in its forward speed...and this motion will continue throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Bopha is expected to approach Western Micronesia, passing south of Yap and Ulithi Islands on Sunday morning...and over or very near Palau Islands on Monday early morning at approximately 2 am Philippine Time. By Tuesday morning, Bopha will be approaching the coast of Surigao Provinces.
Bopha will continue gaining strength during the next 24 hours...and could be near Super Typhoon strength later tonight or Sunday morning. A decrease in its strength is forecast on Monday and Tuesday as Bopha moves into an area of lower Ocean Heat Content (OHC) or slightly cooler sea-surface temperatures.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
SUNDAY MORNING: Strengthens to near Super Typhoon status as it approaches the Republic of Palau...about 327 km east-southeast of Koror, Republic of Palau [11AM DEC 02: 6.1N 137.2E @ 230kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Weakens slightly while moving away from the Republic of Palau...towards Surigao Provinces...about 177 km west of Koror, Republic of Palau [11AM DEC 03: 7.4N 132.9E @ 220kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Weakens to a Category 3 Typhoon as it approaches the coast of Surigao Provinces...about 316 km east-southeast of Surigao City, PH [11AM DEC 04: 8.8N 128.2E @ 205kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.
28-KM ROUND EYE - over water (Western Pacific Ocean). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE). EYEWALL - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not yet affecting any land areas.. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the smaller islands of Central Micronesia. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across the smaller islands of Central Micronesia. Tropical Depression Conditions with moderate to strong winds (<62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Bopha. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 13-18 ft (4-5.5 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Central Micronesia. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Western Micronesia and the Marianas (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat December 01, 2012
Class/Name: TY Bopha (26W)
Location of Eye: 4.9º N Lat 141.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 634 km (SSE) from Colonia, Yap
Distance 2: 720 km (E) from the PAR
Distance 3: 815 km (ESE) from Koror, Palau
Distance 4: 1,705 km (ESE) from Mati City, PH
Distance 5: 1,718 km (ESE) from Bislig City, PH
Distance 6: 1,846 km (ESE) from Surigao City, PH
Distance 7: 1,946 km (SE) from Tacloban City, PH
Distance 8: 2,115 km (SE) from Bicol Region, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 215 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 260 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 4
Present Movement: WNW @ 19 kph
Towards: Republic of Palau
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [400 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 720 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 33 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft (4-5.5 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)
CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE:
CURRENT TRACKING CHART:
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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> http://www.maybagyo.com
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